#1
I have a feeling that BO&theDems have carefully crafted a 2013 withdrawal promise as a campaign plank.
Hope it addresses the coming 130k unemployed with PTSD.
#2
Interesting Article Besoeker. Thanks. Not sure what the real point that the writer was making Though. Poll stats on the popularity of the war? Thats policy making by asking the misinformed in most cases. That America doesnt like long wars? Which country does? "Winning wars" in an asymetrical conflict - nope - old school concept, just like "declaring wars", "frontlines" and smoothbore muskets.
Wars almost by definition leave power vaacums, or at least unstable areas. The trouble with the Stan is that the other power options are butt ugly. But in reality they are Afghan problems. There are now over 173,000 Afghan troops. likely 50% effective. They have the support of the Afghan people (so says their polls). Its time to extract in a measured way without the ticker tape parade, that can wait, --- get the tired ones back and reconstituting for what is coming next. (and there always is a next it seems). Let the ANA assume large areas of the country. They either will step up or they won't. When the Afghan people see that the Taliban is fighting their own and not foreigners, my view is that the support for the T will dwindle quickly. Those who went through Vietnam can point to a different result - and that outcome is possible, but as crappy as Karzai's govt is, its not by a long shot the govt of South Vietnam that had lost almost all credibility.
The USA deserves more credit for what it has accomplished over there. The change is dramatic and for the positive, despite the naysayers. The initial reasons (good ones) to take out the AlQaida threat, remove OBN, build up the Afghan govt (in a reasonable democratic albeit far from perfect model) have all happened. Unless the world wants to fix the drug problem (not happenning) then Afghanistan is past its due date.
#5
That's an angle I had not considered: maybe in this war, we have an "ally" that deserves a screwjob like the South Vietnamese (undeservedly) got. I certainly would not shed tears over Hamid's head on a pike. Just chop the thing up into tribes and be done with it (and we can support the tribes against each other to keep them busy - cheaper and less of our own blood being shed).
#7
I like what you say Spook but we aren't very good at chopping. Even when we're part of the empowered mass.
Persia and the Ottoman empire became a mess after only 50 years. But that 50 years of instability enabled US to exploit some natural resources. Does AFG actually have anything of value?
Hope we spray the fields with some sterilization agent on the way out.
#8
Iff the Bammer or POTUS Successor taint careful, the next war in [post-2014] Afghanistan = AFPAK will be part of the larger war agz Iran.
Iff the Mullahs make good on their strategery, a US-Iran war WON'T be another "IRAQ 2003" - it'll be longer + worser.
"VIETNAM WAR II", except the Commies, NVA + VC, may have Tac Nukes-WMDS + their own INternational Terror networks to fight wid, + of course anti-US "Great/Nuclesr Powers" = Brinkmanship.
Iff the Mullahs have their way, A DE FACTO US-ALLIED GROUND OCCUPATION OF HALF OR MOST OF IRAN PROPER WILL NOT MEAN VICTORY. BUT ONLY BE A PORTION OF A LARGER REGIONAL OR TRANS-REGIONAL BATTLEFIELD.
Jeffrey Goldberg, who writes for Bloomberg and the Atlantic, was stunned by the optimism he heard from senior Israelis about the consequences of an attack. To sum up his findings, top Israelis including (apparently) the Prime Minister and the Defense Minister, have reached the following conclusions about the consequences of an attack:
o If it acts soon, Israel has the capacity to set the Iranian nuclear program back by five years.
o There is a significant probability that a successful attack on Iran will energize Irans internal opposition, leading ultimately to the downfall or at least the crippling of the Iranian government.
o President Obama will not retaliate against Israel.
o Rather than launch massive retaliation against Israel, Iran will try to downplay the assault (as Syria and Iraq did in the past), perhaps launching only a few token missiles in response.
o Fearing massive retaliation, Iran would not attack American ships or targets in response.
Jeffrey Goldberg, who writes for Bloomberg and the Atlantic, was stunned by the optimism he heard from senior Israelis about the consequences of an attack. To sum up his findings, top Israelis including (apparently) the Prime Minister and the Defense Minister, have reached the following conclusions about the consequences of an attack:
o If it acts soon, Israel has the capacity to set the Iranian nuclear program back by five years.
o There is a significant probability that a successful attack on Iran will energize Iran's internal opposition, leading ultimately to the downfall or at least the crippling of the Iranian government.
o President B.O. will not retaliate against Israel.
o Rather than launch massive retaliation against Israel, Iran will try to downplay the assault (as Syria and Iraq did in the past), perhaps launching only a few token missiles in response.
o Fearing massive retaliation, Iran would not attack American ships or targets in response.
#2
a successful attack on Iran will energize Iran's internal opposition, leading ultimately to the downfall or at least the crippling of the Iranian government
Highly unlikely, unless coupled with airdrops of hundreds of thousands of handguns & ammo into Iran with DIY directions on their use.
Tariq Ramadan, enough said. However everything is gist for the mill.
The strategic alliance with the literalists is critical for the West in order to keep the Middle East under control
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
Jeffrey Goldberg, who writes for Bloomberg and the Atlantic, was stunned by the optimism he heard from senior Israelis about the consequences of an attack. To sum up his findings, top Israelis including (apparently) the Prime Minister and the Defense Minister, have reached the following conclusions about the consequences of an attack:
