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Pressure grows on UN waverers
Washington and London have begun piling pressure on five key African and Latin American members of the UN security council, in an effort to win a nine-vote majority they could then use to manoeuvre France, Russia and China away from vetoing a second resolution authorising war on Iraq. With Bulgaria and Spain already likely backers, American and British diplomats are focusing on Angola, Cameroon, Guinea, and Chile and Mexico.
I'm trying to understand how Mexico's President Fox can think that he can dis us on this vote and then expect us to do anything to help him concerning free trade and immigration.
The hope is that if those votes are gained then the veto-wielding major powers who are threatening to oppose an imminent attack might find themselves forced to abstain rather than appear to challenge the majority will of the UN. On Monday Britain and the US will table a draft resolution to the UN security council approving military action. It is expected that the resolution will be voted on on Friday March 7 although the timetable may slip to the following Monday if there are last minute negotiations.
Looks like we're going to miss the new moon.
Publication of the draft resolution will form the focus of debates in the Commons and Lords on Wednesday when MPs will vote on a substantive government motion. The last time MPs voted on Iraq on a specific motion more than 50 Labour MPs rebelled.
Hope they're comfortable being the "Galloway faction."
President George Bush, vice-president Dick Cheney and senior state department officials have been in frequent communication with several of the "middle six" - the five African and Latin American countries plus Pakistan, whose trade and aid relationships with the US provide Washington with enormous leverage. A Bush administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told the Guardian the US was not making economic threats - "but that's not to say these countries are not aware that we provide them with assistance."
"Marvin."
"Yes, Mr. Secretary?"
"Please remind the leaders of Pakistan, Angola, Cameroon, Guinea, and Chile and Mexico how much we need their votes."
"Yes, Mr. Secretary."
"And remind them of their economic ties to us."
"Yes, Mr. Secretary."
"And remind them of all the other stuff they depend on us for."
"Yes, Mr. Secretary."
"And remind them of how tenuous all that aid money is."
"Yes, Mr. Secretary."
"But don't threaten them."
"Oh, no sir, Mr. Secretary."
In Latin America, Chile's anti-war stance has remained firm in public, but there are signs of nervousness. Chile's biggest fear is that a no vote could torpedo its free-trade agreement with the US, awaiting ratification by both countries' legislatures.
"Remember, Marvin, it wouldn't be polite to threaten them."
"I'll be very polite, Mr. Secretary."
"Just like we're polite with the Frenchies..."
The US has not threatened Mexico overtly. But a no vote could end Mexico's hopes of negotiating a better deal for the millions of Mexican illegal immigrants in the US.
"And Marvin, do not even think of telling the Mexicans about that big steel fence someone proposed building between our two countries."
"Absolutely not, Mr. Secretary."
Angola, Guinea and Cameroon were among 52 African nations who voted on Thursday to back France's push to give weapons inspectors more time. But in Angola at least the White House has scented a hawk in the making. Guinea has a history of non-alignment but receives $50m (£32m) a year in US aid, plus arms and military training. Cameroon is also being buffeted by the opposing forces of its two biggest bilateral investors, France and the US.
"Remember Marvin, buffet gently."
"Light as a feather, Mr. Secretary."
"And Marvin?"
"Yes, sir?"
"Send another case of gin to M. le President, with our compliments."

Posted by: Steve White 2003-02-22
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=10514