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Major warns of Iraq dangers
John Major, the prime minister during the 1991 Gulf War, says a new attack on Iraq would be far more dangerous with Saddam Hussein backed into a corner and likely to lash out in all directions.We know that. Major, who sent tens of thousands of troops to the Gulf to help the United States kick Iraq's armed forces out of Kuwait, said on Sunday that the Iraqi president knew he was likely to be deposed or dead if a new war is launched. We know that too. Twelve years ago, the goal was to liberate Kuwait. Now, London and Washington plan to go into Iraq, disarm Saddam and probably topple him, he said. "This time he is threatened... he knows at the end of this war he is likely to be dead, or fled or on trial," Major said. "This one is much more complex and has many more potential hazards. He may on this occasion use all his arsenal." Major ran through a range of options which a cornered Saddam may pursue — including setting alight his own oilfields, targeting those in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait or firing missiles, possibly chemical, at Saudi Arabia and Israel in an attempt to destabilise the whole region. Yep, we thought of those as well. "None of these things is certain but all of these things are possible and all of them must be in the minds of the planners as they anticipate what might happen when conflict starts," he said. Major and the elder George Bush balked at marching on Baghdad in 1991, fearing that would shatter a carefully built Arab coalition backing the freeing of Kuwait. This time there is little or no Arab support for war on Iraq, complicating the diplomatic sphere, Major said. Other than Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, the UAE, and Jordan, you mean. But he was even more concerned by the aftermath, predicting an uprising by Shi'ites and Kurds if Saddam's demise seemed imminent. British and American troops may find themselves in Iraq as peacekeepers for a long time, Major said. We'll be there a while, yes. Major was also sceptical about the prospects for a broad, post-Saddam government, saying it would be "next to impossible" to build a coalition of Iraq's ethnic groups. "The problems of winning the peace... are going to be much more complex and take much longer than most people are currently reckoning," he said. We know that, John. We're prepared, and it looks like Tony is too.
Posted by: Steve White 2003-02-24 |
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