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New Korean crisis: Neither DC nor Tokyo can trust Seoul with intelligence
From East Asia Intel, subscription req'd/SEOUL — A senior Japanese official's comments about Washington's loss of confidence in the South Korean government has signaled a major shift in the traditional U.S. "trilateral cooperation" with Tokyo and Seoul on combined policy toward North Korea. South Korean officials responded with fury to remarks by Japan's Vice Foreign Minister Shotaro Yachi, that the United States no longer trusts South Korea. For that reason, Yachi told visiting members of South Korea's National Assembly, Japan is reluctant to provide South Korea with intelligence information on North Korea. Cause, meet effect. The SKors want to appease the Norks, Japan cuts off the teletype. Yachi poured oil on the flames with what was viewed here as a patronizing rejoinder when he said it was "regrettable if the remarks have invited a misunderstanding by causing an argument of various forms in South Korea." Yachi blamed publicity-hungry South Korean politicos for publicizing his comments out of context, saying he was "embarrassed by the fact that the comments, which were made in an informal exchange of views, have been made known externally." Finally, a Japanese foreign ministry official added to the controversy when Asahi Shimbun quoted him as saying, "If things like this happen, we will no longer be able to hold unofficial talks." South Korea's foreign ministry issued a flat rejection of Yachi's half-hearted "regret," stating: "Our government will not view the remarks as an individual issue, and will study the future direction of Korea-Japan relations by considering them comprehensively together with other remarks distorting the history." The problem was exacerbated when Seoul reportedly suggested postponing trilateral consultative talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons for an indefinite period. Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Japan's financial newspaper, said Japan is eager for the talks, scheduled to resume in June. Seoul, however, is cold-shouldering Japan while smoldering over Yachi's remarks. The talks were last held in Seoul on Feb. 26. Sources in South Korea have long said the United States is holding back on critical intelligence material for fear leftists in South Korea's government would share it with radical politicians and professors having ties to North Korea. A justifiable fear, after the way Pres. Roh has been acting. Although U.S. officials have steadfastly denied any lack of cooperation, the sense of unwillingness to let South Korean officials in on some of Washington's best-kept secrets about North Korea has been growing ever since Kim Dae-Jung flew to Pyongyang for the first and only inter-Korean summit on June 15, 2000. The South Korean government, cooperating with North Korea on a huge fifth anniversary celebration next month, reportedly wants to wait until the flurry of visits is over before participating in trilateral talks, the brainchild of U.S. diplomacy. Roh has sh*t in his messkit, already. So deep is the impasse that South Korea's Deputy Foreign Minister Song Min-Soon, chief negotiator for South Korea in talks with the North, has let it be known he has no intention of meeting Kenichiro Sasae, Japan's chief negotiator on North Korea, even though they will both be in Washington this week. Not much to say after the trust is lost. So Christopher Hill, assistant secretary of state for East Asia and the Pacific and chief U.S. negotiator on North Korea, has to hold hands separately with each of them to try to get the trilateral process going again. Trilateral is dead. Bilateral is alive. Yet another factor delaying a trilateral meeting is the upcoming summit between President Roh Moo-Hyun and President Bush. Roh flies to Washington on June 9 and meets Bush at the White House the next day for the specific purpose, according to sources here, of trying to get Washington and Seoul on the same wavelength when it comes to dealing with North Korea. To get on the same wavelength, someone will have to get 180 deg out of phase. I do not see President Bush doing an about face, especially after the failure of Clinton's carrot deal. Roh has set his agenda, so he is not going to change. Nothing will happen. The Love is gone. Diplomatic sources believe the U.S. and South Korea have actually begun to engineer a grand compromise — the U.S. is no longer so hard-line vis-Ã -vis North Korea, and South Korea pays at least lip service to U.S. demands for North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program. IMHO this is BS speculation based on hope. But Bush and Roh are expected to be far apart when it comes to deciding what to do if North Korea continues to stonewall on the next round of talks. South Korea opposes taking the issue to the United Nations Security Council for debate on sanctions. China and Russia — permanent members of the Security Council along with France, Britain and the U.S. — are expected to oppose the idea as well. The UNSC, whatever.....nothing will happen there anyway. Under these circumstances, diplomatic sources say, neither the U.S. nor Japan is going to provide South Korea with the most sensitive intelligence material on North Korea. THAT is the bottom line. [*snip*] Posted by: Alaska Paul 2005-06-02 |
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