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Universal Rules of Intelligence
Posted by "Dafydd" at Captain's Quarters.Thinking about the terrible shooting of Brazilian electrician Jean Charles de Menezes, shot to death in London by police who mistook him for a suicide bomber, recalls some rules of intelligence and analysis that we should always keep in mind: 1. The Law of Imperfect Precognition: Sometimes there is no "right choice." Throw the dice. 2. The Law of Imperfect Postcognition: Not even hindsight is ever really 20-20. 3. The Law of Colliding Interests: Five different people can each make a rational decision and still wind up in a melee. 4. The Law of the Rational Onion: There is always another layer of analysis that contradicts everything you've already concluded. At some point, you just have to stop. 5. The Law of Models: There is a real reality out there, whether you can see it or not. And it bites. Posted by: Mike 2005-07-26 |
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