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Koizumi headed to victory in Japan
Junichiro Koizumi's Liberal Democratic party-led coalition is heading for victory in this week's general election, according to a slew of polls published yesterday.The surveys, the most comprehensive so far, show the opposition Democratic Party of Japan is in danger of winning fewer seats than the 177 gained in the previous lower house election. The findings suggest the public has responded to the prime minister's gamble in calling a snap election over the issue of postal privatisation - the first such parliamentary dissolution under the postwar constitution. It also suggests the DPJ has failed to capitalise on what many political analysts had considered its golden opportunity to seize power after 50 years of almost unbroken LDP rule. Polls in the Yomiuri and Nikkei newspapers and from the Kyodo news agency showed the LDP has an outside chance of winning a majority of more than 240 seats in the 480-seat lower house on its own. That does not include Komeito, its junior coalition partner, which should bring a further 30 seats. Much is at stake since Mr Koizumi has pledged to resign if his coalition cannot win a simple majority. Polls showed the LDP doing better than expected in urban constituencies, where the DPJ has recently dominated. However, analysts warned that the election remained hard to read. About a third of voters have yet to make up their minds, giving the DPJ an opportunity to catch up by wooing floating voters. The outcome is further clouded by the fact that, in about 10 per cent of single-seat constituencies, the LDP is split between pro-Koizumi candidates and LDP postal rebels. That provides an opportunity for DPJ candidates, even in traditional LDP rural strongholds, to come through the middle. Takao Toshikawa, editor of Insideline, a political newsletter, said the DPJ had a slim chance of staging a comeback. Mr Koizumi's high-profile tactics of sending in "political assassins" to oust LDP postal rebels had so far excited the electorate. "But the magic could always wear off," he said. "When the hype dies down, it may be that the electorate prefers the DPJ's more substantial platform." Katsuya Okada, the DPJ leader, has so far been frustrated in his attempts to move the electoral debate away from Mr Koizumi's chosen battleground of a simple referendum on postal privatisation. The DPJ has been trying to discuss pension and tax reform as well as new foreign policy initiatives, including withdrawing troops from Iraq. Campaigning in the industrial city of Osaka this weekend, Mr Okada suspended his normally sober demeanour to launch a fierce attack on the prime minister, accusing his party of practising grubby money politics. He also said Mr Koizumi had broken several election pledges. Mr Okada said: "According to the media, the LDP is enjoying a lead. But when the public reflects soberly I think there is every chance that they will give the DPJ a majority." Posted by: Dan Darling 2005-09-05 |
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