|
It is time to move out of harmâs way
In WOT Background due to the strategic role of oil. Subscription required.Hurricane Katrina is a reminder that the really big cumulative disrupters, if not killers, are natural catastrophes rather than the man-made disasters so much on peopleâs minds since September 11 2001. But certain regions are prone to natural catastrophe, none more so than the southern US that is so regularly hit by storms rising out of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Yet the increasing number of people who choose to live and work in Florida and along the US Gulf coast are literally putting themselves, as the American cliché goes, in harmâs way. For hurricanes are the natural catastrophe most studied by meteorologists and insurance companies, because they are easier to track and cost more in damage (though not lives) than earthquakes. In contrast to the few secondsâ warning of an earthquake, they give advance notice; Katrina was declared a major storm several days before it hit New Orleans. Nor was there any surprise about New Orleansâ vulnerability, and has not been since the US Army Corps of Engineers started in the 19th century building sluices to carry the Mississippi past the sunken city. It has since sunk further, deprived of the river silt that would have bolstered its base. In recent years, federal aid has switched from active to passive measures, cutting money for flood control and increasing the governmentâs liability to provide insurance for flood damage. Is this due to the distraction of Iraq and focus on terrorism-related homeland security, or tacit recognition of New Orleansâ indefensibility? A broader vulnerability arises from the offshore oil industryâs bunching in the western part of the Gulf because Florida refuses to allow the drilling of equally good prospects in the eastern half. bad republicans! Bad! Bad! Actually I've wondered about that myself .... In 2001 President George W. Bush backed off from a proposal to allow drilling near the western tip of the Florida panhandle in the face of fierce opposition from, among others, his brother Jeb, Floridaâs governor. So there remains a curious white collar/blue collar divide in the Gulf, with Florida determined to keep its waters pristine for its tourists and retirees and the western Gulf states ready to open all their waters to the oil industry. It makes good industrial sense for onshore refineries also to be clustered in the western half, where the oil comes ashore, Ah, so maybe it's isn't all about bad white collars? but bad risk management, as Katrina has shown by shutting down nine refineries, or one-tenth of US processing capacity. Joe Barton, the Texas congressman who chairs the House energy committee, wants to change this. In advance of the energy committee hearing he has called tomorrow on Katrinaâs energy market impact, he said he wanted to âdiversify the location [of oil facilities] so that we are not as dependent on the area that the hurricane hitâ. Short of Texas and Louisiana annexing Florida, it is hard to see how this can be done. The Gulf shutdowns come on top of a general capacity crunch created by the fact that the US has not built any new refinery since 1976. Part of this is because of local opposition on environmental and health grounds, or what Robin West, head of the PFC Energy consultancy in Washington, calls the Banana approach (Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything). So what now? How should the US Gulf coast adapt to the certainty of future Katrinas? New Orleansâ fate is the obvious priority. While the cityâs older, more elevated part will surely be retained as a matter of national pride, the case for rebuilding in lower parts must be weak. As for the oil industry, it may find cover scarcer from insurers, some of whom, says Tim Fillingham, head of energy insurance services for Aon, started to scale down Gulf exposure after last yearâs Hurricane Ivan. So oil companies may need to strengthen offshore platforms and develop their own back-up power sources. For its part, the federal government should consider building an emergency gasoline stock.Stockpiling of crude alone made sense at the creation of the strategic petroleum reserve in 1976 when another cut-off of Arab oil supplies was the main danger, but not today when the risk is a domestic refining crunch. Partly true. But that reserve is there for things like jet fuel, not just automobile gasoline. But federal and state authorities also need to start taking strategic decisions on how much protection and insurance it is sensible to promise coastal residents. Yes! Someone has said it! Americans have been flocking to the Gulf coast â Floridaâs population rose 70 per cent from 1980-2001 â and exposing themselves to risk. Does greater protection make sense? Tom Mitchell, a Caribbean and Gulf storm specialist with the Benfield Hazard Research Centre in London, doubts it. âThe chances of a locality getting a direct hit in any one year from something stronger than the Category 3 storm New Orleans was prepared for are relatively small, and providing that extra protection is very expensive.â So perhaps residents, or certainly those who cannot afford the extra insurance premiums, should pull back from the Gulf coast. Otherwise, if disaster strikes, Mr Mitchell says, peopleâs only hope is âa strong cohesive society which can join together in an effective relief effortâ. Sadly, New Orleans has shown failure on that score, too. Posted by: lotp 2005-09-05 |
| http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=128679 |