Canada threatens to divert U.S. oil imports to Chicoms
From East Asia Intel, subscription req'd.
Canada might restrict its crude oil exports to the U.S. in favor of sales to China as retaliation in a longtime trade dispute, Prime Minister Paul Martin hinted in an early October speech in New York.
The dispute has been simmering for years but boiled over in May 2002 when the U.S. imposed 27 percent duties on Canadian softwood lumber. The World Trade Organization recently upheld the American contention that Canadian exports were subsidized and could damage U.S. industry. But WTO ruled that the American anti-dumping fees were not legal. The U.S. has collected some $5 billion and distributed it to American producers.
So if the WTO ruled in favor of the US on the Canadian softwood dumping issue, and said that US companies were not allowed compensation, then the only thing that was accomplished is that the WTO said that Canada was wrong, nothing else, no consequences.
Martin and other Canadian government leaders have been careful not to directly link the softwood conflict to any oil punishment. But when Chinese President Hu Jintao arrived in Ottawa for a four-day visit in September, it came on the heels of U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow's survey of Alberta's oil production.
Link but no link, heh heh.
Beijing has been working to transfer control of Husky Oil from its favorite Hong Kong billionaire, Li Ka Shing, to one of its government oil companies. And last year China announced it was willing to invest heavily in oil sands reserves, which make Canada, now the worldâs No. 7 producer, potentially one of the worldâs largest and most stable energy sources.
Li Ka Shing's company, Hutchison Wampoa fronted for the Chicoms. They also have the port contracts at both ends of the Panama Canal, among other things. The Chicoms are thinking long term grand strategy.
Just days after Martinâs speech, Canadaâs Acting Natural Resources Minister John McCallum conferred in Beijing with the presidents of two of China's largest state-owned oil companies. McCallum said China could be importing 400,000 barrels of oil a day from Canada within seven years. He called for quick implementation of the almost-unnoticed declaration of a Canada-China "strategic partnership" announced during the Hu visit.
If Canada is not careful, the Chicoms will own them, through systematic business acquisitions. This does not bode well for the US.
"This is not a threat, and there is no linkage," McCallum said. "I am saying that Canada is pursuing its national interest to sell our energy resources and our other resources all around the world to get the best price and the most secure markets that we can ... The government is saying that if the U.S. doesn't respect NAFTA [North American Free Trade Agreement] rules on wood, then what does that mean for NAFTA rules in other areas, including energy?"
This could cause the US to rethink the routing of the proposed Alaska natural gas pipeline, a HUGE projet. There are two proposed agreements for Canadian transit to the Lower 48 states, and one Alaska route to a LNG terminal in Valdez.
Complex trade relations between the worldâs two largest traders would still present many complications to a closer Canada-China energy relationship. Oil-producing Alberta Premier Ralph Klein reminded Martin publicly that it was not Ottawaâs decision of how and where its energy would go, since control of subsoil resources is a provincial prerogative.
And therein lies the rub. But if the Chicoms are the big players in energy holdings in Alberta, it would seem to me that they would call the tune. We better get our energy house in order.
Posted by: Alaska Paul 2005-10-20 |