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East Asia 'not big enough' for both China & India
East Asia isn’t big enough for the two of us. That is China’s message to India in the run-up to the East Asia Summit in Kuala Lumpur (December 6-14). The summit is expected to announce the core group for a future East Asian community. Beijing is pushing for a group that excludes India.

At the heart of the diplomatic battle is a summit declaration that, say diplomats, will say who will be “responsible for creating an East Asian community”. The “who” will be determined by which countries issue the declaration.

China wants the all-important line to be part of the declaration of the Asean+3 — the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus China, Japan and South Korea. This means these countries would form the core of what its proponents hope will become the continent’s main multilateral body.

India wants the line to be part of a declaration issued by all the summit participants. At present, India is in a separate Asean+1 grouping. “We’ve been arguing for the two groupings to be made into an Asean+4 since the Laos summit last year,” said a senior Indian official. “So we want the summit to define East Asian in a manner that includes India, covering countries from Japan to Australia.”

Asia has split right down the middle. Malaysia has taken up China’s position within Asean. Singapore and, surprisingly, Indonesia are supporting India. Some southeast Asian countries like Thailand, say Indian officials, fear Asean will be overwhelmed by both Asian giants and have declined to take sides.

Even the +3 countries are split. Japan backs the Indian call. South Korea won’t anger China, given the Pyongyang problem. Australia and New Zealand are in the same boat as India at the summit. “Normally, we would’ve worked out the final declaration well before the summit. Now it looks like it’ll go down to the wire,” said a southeast Asian diplomat.

New Delhi says India has a double stake in being part of the East Asian community. One is economic. “India’s trade and investment ties with East Asia have grown dramatically in the past decade,” said an Indian official. “The region will be crucial to India’s future economic growth.”

The second is geopolitical. India sees China’s opposition to a larger East Asian formulation as evidence of Beijing wanting to curb Indian influence. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s speech in Kuala Lumpur is expected to echo the recent statement of Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran that India is prepared to play a “balancing” role in Asia.

Asia-Pacific diplomats are in agreement that Beijing's motives are overtly geostrategic. "India, by its sheer size, is the only country that could stop the community from being dominated by China," said one diplomat. However, say others, China may be more troubled at the idea of a close US ally like Australia joining.

No one is certain where the East Asian community, something which originated in 2000, will go but it has the potential, said one observer, "of being an Asian version of the European Economic Community".
Cheez, I sure hope they do better than that.
India has notched up its lobbying over the past two months, say both Indian and Asean diplomats. A Foreign Ministry team is expected to fly to Malaysia on December 11, just before the heads of governments arrive.

But victory is far from certain. Asean works on consensus, so even one country can block forward movement. Delhi may be lucky to even secure a draw in which the East Asia community line is diluted or becomes part of two declarations.
Posted by: Steve White 2005-12-05
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=136604