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The Nuclear Attack On The US Carrier Group
(original opinion, hypothetical - NOT A NEWS ITEM.) The most important Cold War axiom was the avoidance of nuclear war. Though both sides continually maneuvered with, and were intensely aware of these weapons, everyone was convinced beyond any doubt that they must not be used. This even evolved into a philosophy of war, that of Mutually Assured Destruction, or MAD. Over time, grand diplomatic structures and international protocols were created surrounding the concepts of use, safety & surety, and the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. But these always had in mind, as an axiom, that no one who had nuclear weapons wanted to use them. However, all of this grand strategy is for nought if even a single country procures or builds one or more nuclear weapons and wants to use them. A country that does not grasp the implications and the power of such weapons, and is neither afraid of their use, nor fears devastating retaliation. Is Iran such a country? Iran is ambitious, and clear about where its ambitions lie. It sees itself as a regional, or even world power, which is not an unreasonable goal; but they also have the far less realistic dream of being the center of a "Shiite cresecent." It looks to its history and sees an idealized version of the past greatness that was Persia. And it sees one, and only one, major obstacle to it achieving many of its goals. The presence of the United States in the Middle East. So if we imagine a belligerent Iran, and one with nuclear weapons, their strategy is clear. To drive the US out of the Middle East, and optimally, to evade retaliation from the US while doing so. For while they might not fear retaliation, they would want to avoid it if at all possible. (At this point I would like to say that there are gaping flaws in this strategy, so please do not assume I in any way agree with or support this concept of operations. I mearly point out that it would be an obvious strategy from their point of view.) If you look at the above map, you will see how very narrow are the navigable shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. A shallow water chokepoint if there ever was one. This leads to one conclusion: a nuclear attack on a US carrier group passing through the Strait. Most likely not a missile, but instead a naval mine or a fire ship disguised as ordinary shipping. Specifically done in the Strait for several reasons: 1) Ease of attack. It is the only place where a nuclear weapon could be placed with greatest chance of success. 2) A major blow to the United States. The Iranians intensely studied Gulf War I, and have concluded that US naval air power is the greatest threat to their regime. 3) Deniability. Pre-arranged denials in all the worlds' capitols, hoping to get world leaders demanding that the US not retaliate until "it is proven who attacked you." 4) To close the Persian Gulf to shipping. This would result in an instant oil embargo from Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, which would create a major economic crisis around the world. It would also have the tandem effect of keeping any other US carrier fleets out of the Persian Gulf, significantly increasing the degree of difficulty in attacking Iran. They calculate that the immediate response from the US would be to launch air attacks from Iraq and Afghanistan. Anticipating this, they would have prepared a massive conventional missile barrage against the US airbases in those two countries, also diplomatically described as "defensive, since the US attacked them first." The US planes would be forced to land in another country, which would be unlikely to let them take off again to attack Iran. Much of their diplomatic effort would be to demand an immediate meeting of the UNSC, in the hope that one of the other major powers would be so swinish as to stand in the way of the US retaliation. And there would be no guarantee that any other US carrier group could enter the region without meeting another nuke, almost certainly a sea-bottom mine, difficult to detect. If nothing else, it would slow their arrival into the region by some time. Iranian commercial shipping could also be scuttled in the Strait, and other commercial ships could be attacked by Iranian submarines, already massed to attack any US submarines entering the area. By sacrificing a submarine, the US sub would reveal its position and be set upon by several enemy subs. US ground forces in Iraq would either be prevented from entering Iran by two Iranian Corps in defensive positions on the border; or the Iranians would defend the northern border, and invade southern Iraq to tie down US forces in Iraq. From that point on, Iran figures that by having a large number of missiles, many capable of hitting European capitols, along with continual diplomatic efforts, it could force the US to back down. Again, all with that one major concept in mind, to get the US to leave the Middle East. Posted by: Anonymoose 2005-12-10 |
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