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Tom Maguire explains why revealing NSA program hurts
The always-worth-reading Tom Maguire of Just One Minute explains why the NYT revelation of the NSA program has hurt national security. Until Old Spook can reveal more (and he won't, and we all know it), this is as good as any explanation I've seen. I'm snipping down to the key graf:
Let's take for granted that Al Qaeda planners have been worried for years about the possibility that their electronic communications might be intercepted. What, then is the harm in the original NY Times story?

Well, dare we presume that after four years The Proragm (of NSA warrantless eavesdropping) has show results? MS. Harman [ranking Democrat on the House Intel Committee] seems to think so. Consequently, three ideas spring to mind:

(1) Suppose, over the last few years, a few Al Qaeda plots have gone sour due to The Program. The after-action folks at Al Qaeda may wonder What Went Wrong - for example, did a defector rat them out, did a money trail get traced, were they videotaped while buying explosives, what?

A series of Times front pagers highlighting a successful program of communications intercepts may provide them a helpful clue and let them focus on their real weakness, rather than encouraging them to waste time and resources trying to plug fifteen possible non-leaks.

(2) The AQ communication strategy presumably balances flexibility, speed, and security, using, for example, some mix of couriers and electronics. A big Times front pager or ten might prompt them to re-think the mix. That could be a good thing, if their revised procedures are unduly cumbersome. But it might not be, if their more-secure new system lets them evade detection.

(3) Any communication sysytem is susceptible to (a) bad design; and (b) bad implementation. For example, once we broke the Enigma code in WWII, the most diligent radio operator in Germany could not secure their communications because the basic design was flawed.

However - AQ may have a well-designed system, but it is still liable to human error due to laziness, stupidity, nerves, or whatever. For example, some fool who just couldn't resist calling Mom once a week might have blown a plot a year ago (NO, I have no idea, nor do you).

Today, even with three weeks of reminders on the NY Times front page that THE NSA IS LISTENING, a similar AQ a-hole might be calling Mom right now. However, that sort of lucky break is currently just a bit less likely - presumably, the AQ people who worry about security have been screaming their heads off to remind the rest to button everything down.

If these NY Times stories have (1) provided useful after-action intel to AQ; (2) prompted a sensible re-design of the AQ comm system; or (3) prompted more diligent implementation of an already well-designed system, then we have been hurt.
Posted by: Steve White 2006-01-10
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=139435