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Lull, hiatus, or victory?
I don't know if anyone's noticed but me, but the war against al-Qaeda and its hydra-headed affiliates seems to have entered into a phase of relative quiet. Corpse counts seem to be down, and the contents of Page One are more concerned with actions that fit the more traditional mold of international relations. It's likely we're going to end up at war with Iran somewhere down the line, which will strike a blow at the junior nexus of terrorism, but al-Qaeda seems to have had it for now.

Despite the claims of a resurgence of violence in Afghanistan, the Taliban is pretty much powerless. I think Afghans realize they're an idea whose time has gone. The country can develop — or not, depending on its elected politicians — without much danger of Mullah Omar resuming his position as potentate.

Pakistan is going through internal trouble, with rebellion in Balochistan and its own Taliban running amok in Waziristan. They're negotiating with India over Kashmir, and the daily booms that were the rule a couple years ago have receded into the background noise. It's still a country with a culture of violence, but they're welcome to kill each other as far as I'm concerned. Binny hasn't been heard from, and Michael Ledeen says he heard that he's dead, buried in Iran.

Indonesia and the Philippines are also relatively quiet, despite the continuing stories about Jemaah Islamiyah having big plans in the works. Dulmatin and Noordin Mohammad Top are still at large, but it looks like the organization might be broken. Violence in southern Thailand seems down, too.

The Soddies seem to be mopping up their domestic al-Qaeda, though they still haven't chopped off the heads of any holy men. The Aden-Abyan Islamic Army and its successors in Yemen have pooped out. Jordan has declared its own War on Terror, and maybe they'll even clean out Zarqa and Maan. With the Syrians gone, the Lebs are starting to look askance at Hezbollah and ask each other why Paleos should be allowed to run around their country waving guns and shooting the occasional meter reader.

In Iraq they've had their elections, they've got a constitution, and even the domestic Sunni tough guys seem to be falling out with Zark's international adventurer corps. Sammy's on trial and Tariq Aziz is on his death bed. We're talking about troop reductions and withdrawals, while the Iraqi army and cops take on more of the load and the Brits bitch about the way we do things.

GSPC has been clobbered in Algeria, with three of its biggest boys being taken into custody with a wad of cash the other day. Morocco's version of GSPC seems to have been stillborn.

Turkey's attempt at Qaeda-style terrorism doesn't seem to have come to much. The Euros, especially Spain, keep reeling in hard boyz. Yasser's dead and the Paleos are shooting each other up in Emma Goldmann-style anarchy.

There will be another boom in a little while. Dan says the latest Zawahiri video could be the signal for a new major attack, maybe in Italy. Zark keeps trying for ever higher stacks of deaders in Iraq and to export the carnage to neighboring countries. Chechnya seems to be transforming into something larger and more dangerous, and the Russers are incompetent to stop it. The Soddy preachers keep trying to whip up the rubes, and I'm sure the money's still flowing from the princes. But at this point it looks like we've passed the peak. Unless the bad guyz manage to go nuclear — at which point all bets are off — if we just keep doing what we're doing they're beaten.
Posted by: Fred 2006-01-13
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=139679