|
|
The Great War of 2007
| Niall Ferguson on the likelihood of conflict with Iran - its causes and its possible very bad outcome. Money quote: |
Yet the historian is bound to ask whether or not the true significance of the 2007-2011 war was to vindicate the Bush administration's original principle of pre-emption. For, if that principle had been adhered to in 2006, Iran's nuclear bid might have been thwarted at minimal cost. And the Great Gulf War might never have happened.
| I always dislike these "history before the fact" pieces. They're invariably precious and they're invariably off the mark. Ferguson seems to be making the assumption that military and diplomatic measures are divorced from each other, if you go the diplo route then military action is ruled out. Yet when we look at history that's already happened, we see the continuous movement of big cheeses back and forth, from capital to capital, chat to chat, in the weeks and months leading up to real actions. There's always a background noise of such trips, but when they start coming together in clumps things are either happening or about to happen. But I don't think Ferguson's watching, probably because tracking it is boring. |
Posted by: lotp 2006-01-15 |
| http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=139802 |
|