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The method to Ahmadinejad's madness
Everything happens in threes, they say. The first time Mahmoud Ahmadinejad shocked and dared by declaring "Israel should be wiped off the map," many thought this might be an aberration from the inexperienced, populist president of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The second time, however, Ahmadinejad only reaffirmed his political incorrectness with conviction and fervor, suggesting that "if the Europeans claim that the Zionists were suppressed during the Second World War, they can place a part of Europe at [the Zionists'] disposal." This was further reasserted a few days later with his third pronouncement, "they have created a myth today and they call it the massacre of the Jews."The Iranian president's gaffes not only showed his deep-seated anti-Israel convictions; they were also used to further Ahmadinejad's domestic, regional, and international aims - most recently demonstrated by Iran's December 31 resumption of research in its nuclear program. Unbeknownst to many, although Iran is a theocratic state, it is also a factional one. While Iranian institutions are dominated by ideological and conservative-minded clerics and politicians, because factionalism is virtually enshrined in the political system, not all embrace the ideological resurgence espoused by Ahmadinejad. Indeed, there has been sufficient criticism of him for supreme leader Ali Khamenei to publicly declare his support for the harried president. At the same time, a former president, and Ahmadinejad's rival in the presidential election, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, has resurfaced to moderate and counterbalance the president's often contentious Western political image. Ahmadinejad faced roadblocks from his political rivals in trying to appoint members to his Cabinet and advance certain economic policies. That is why he seized upon anti-Israel rhetoric as an issue allowing him to curry favor with the elite. Indeed, no faction publicly criticized Ahmadinejad for using the rhetoric of a renewed, pan-Islamic revivalism better associated with Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Instead, Ahmadinejad now looks ever more resilient in challenging the West by attacking Israel. Regionally as well, Ahmadinejad has positioned himself as a champion of the Arab street. His stringent rhetoric was well received in many Arab capitals, but most importantly among Iran's regional allies. Expressing the strongest support for the president's statements was the Hamas official Khaled Mishaal. In recent visits to Tehran, Hamas leaders promised that any potential attack against Iranian nuclear facilities would be reciprocated by attacks against Israel. Despite Iran's isolation, it has bequeathed to the Israelis a proxy group strategically positioned to lash back at Israel within close proximity of the country - a group whose legitimacy may increase after the January 25 Palestinian elections. Ahmadinejad's anti-Israel statements have also played a role in buttressing his nuclear posturing. While the president insisted that Iran's program was only for peaceful purposes, among his first foreign policy pronouncements in August 2005 was to reject the proposals of the so-called European Union-3, to resume nuclear work, and even to threaten to begin uranium enrichment. Ahmadinejad's comments earned him condemnation from the international community, but they also brought mounting Israeli pressure for a possible military strike against Iran. The rising tension has prompted the EU-3 to join the United States in calling for the Iranian nuclear matter to be taken to the United Nations Security Council, even as they, along with Russia and China, have issued a statement underlining the importance of Iran's "fully suspending" its nuclear program. However, no one desires further militarization, and the Iranian regime is aware of the complexities of the situation. But it is also aware that economic realities, with the increasing global demand for oil, make less likely the imposition of sanctions on Iranian energy supplies. Eagerly observing other states in the "nuclear club," the Iranians believe, in line with their nationalistic ideals, that it is the North Korean model that should be emulated. This means Iran will not only succeed in building a nuclear program, but will do so under cover of entrenched back and forth bargaining. This is the ideal scenario for Ahmadinejad, who builds up his credentials by carrying through on his nuclear ambitions. The resumption of nuclear research is another example of Iran pushing the nuclear envelope and thumbing its nose at the international community - on the assumption that Western threats are meaningless. Indeed, as British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw recently declared, "This is a matter which has to be resolved by peaceful means, but it will involve a good deal of diplomatic and other pressure on Iran." Such pressure would only benefit the Iranian regime if it extends the enrichment processing time and exposes a lack of unity in the international community. Ahmadinejad's rhetoric, reminiscent of the Khomeini era, has re-energized the anti-Israel position of the clerical establishment, its support for terrorist groups, as well as Iran's nuclear ambitions. While the international community plans, negotiates, condemns, and threatens, it is Ahmadinejad who has tactically trumped it yet again by exploiting the paucity of options it has at its disposal, to Iran's advantage. Posted by: Dan Darling 2006-01-18 |
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