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Iraqis seeking national unity government
With all the ballots from last month's election finally counted, the leader of Iraq's largest Sunni alliance telephoned his Shiite rival on Friday night to wish him well in the weeks ahead."I was hoping we could build a good relationship," said Adnan Dulaimi, the Sunni leader, of his chat with the leader of the Shiite alliance, Abdul Aziz Hakim. The warm feeling may not last very long. With the results now in, most Iraqi political leaders say they want to form a "national unity" government, a coalition that would include the three main alliances of Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds. With none of the major blocs capturing a majority of the 275 parliamentary seats, the talks to form such a government are already under way. The stakes are high. Anything short of a unity government, Iraqi and American officials here say, would be tantamount to disaster, with the Sunnis the most likely losers. Leaving them out of the government could very well prompt them to turn away from democratic politics again, and give the insurgency a fresh shot of energy. Zalmay Khalilzad, the American ambassador here, has made it clear that he intends to involve himself directly in the negotiations - as forcefully as is necessary - to make sure the Sunnis are given a significant role. But for all the expressions of solidarity, most of the political factors now in play seem weighted against a broad-based government. Many Iraqis suggest that the most likely government will be an alliance between the Shiites and the Kurds, with the Sunnis cut out altogether. In the vote totals announced Friday, the Shiite coalition and an alliance of the two largest Kurdish parties fell just three seats shy of the two-thirds parliamentary majority needed to form a government. With 181 seats in all, the Shiites and Kurds would need to pick up just three additional seats from the 10 other groups that won seats in the election. If they can do that, they will not need the Sunnis to form a government or to pass laws. It seems clear that the Shiite leadership is considering going ahead without the Sunnis. Shiite leaders are petitioning the Iraqi election commission for a re-interpretation of the vote counting rules that would, if it were accepted, grant the Shiites 10 additional seats. The same arithmetic would also come into play in the mechanism to amend Iraq's new Constitution. The Constitution, which would create a weak central government and give the state an Islamic cast, was approved by a majority of Iraqis in October but rejected by most Sunnis. The Sunnis were coaxed into the democratic process by the promise that the new government would consider amending the Constitution. Under the mechanism set up, any change would require a two-thirds vote of the assembly. Early this month, Mr. Hakim, with a rough outline of the election totals already in hand, declared that the Shiite coalition would oppose any significant changes in the constitution. American officials, as well as some Iraqi leaders, interpreted Mr. Hakim's remarks as little more than an opening bid in what are expected to be difficult negotiations. But in any talks over the new Constitution - as over the new government - the Shiites and the Kurds already hold most of the cards. Even a vigorous effort by Mr. Khalilzad, who helped the Iraqis complete the Constitution in October, might not be enough. At times, the old hatreds that divide Sunni, Shiites and Kurds here seemed too daunting even for diplomacy. For the moment, the leaders of the Shiite and Kurdish blocs are saying that they will make every effort to bring the Sunnis into the government. They say they are aware of the dangers - and the futility - of trying to impose their will on an embattled and often violent minority. "We are not living in a country where a party with a two-vote majority in Parliament can rule - this is not Iraq," Jalal Talabani, the Iraqi president and Kurdish leader, said in an interview. "If the Shiites and Kurds will cooperate, there will be a majority, but this is not right, and not the correct way to rule the country." But Mr. Talabani made it clear that his tolerance would reach only so far. One thing he would not brook, he said, was any hint that the Sunni parties were acting as a political front for the insurgents. In an interview earlier this month, a prominent Sunni political leader said that he was in contact with guerrilla leaders, and that he had asked them to hold their fire in December to allow the Sunnis to go to the polls. That raised the possibility that the insurgent violence was being calibrated to help the Sunni parties. "They must be clear they are with the terrorists, or with the political process," Mr. Talabani said, referring to the Sunni leaders. "We will never accept this dirty game. If they are with the political process, they are welcome. If they are with the terrorists, they will lose everything. That is my advice to them." "We, the Kurds and the Shiites and the democratic elements among the Sunnis, will never never, never accept this role," Mr. Talabani said. "They will be out of the government, they will be out of the state, we will rule the country in a democratic way. And we will impose peace and freedom on the country." For now, the Sunnis are hoping that, whatever the arithmetic, they will be granted a role in the new government if only because the consequences of leaving them out are so dire. "They cannot form a cabinet without us," said Mr. Dulaimi, the Sunni leader. "And if there is no consensus, the new cabinet will not be able to solve the Iraqi problem." Posted by: Dan Darling 2006-01-22 |
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