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Parsing the Discussion of Iran at the EU Tribune.
The Glittering Eye blogger has parsed a discussion on Iran and Nukes at the Eu Tribune. Quite interesting.* Is Iran looking to build a nuke? o Why? + Deterrence # See North Korea + Offensive action + Another possible motivation is to gain prestige and influence in the region and within Islam as a whole. o Dangerous? + Terrorists The instability of the regime is of significant concern in this context. + Unreasonable action # Fear that theocracy acts irrationally o Is a civilian programme believable? + Peak oil # Iran needs power in the future This is not a credible explanation: the power that could be generated by utilizing the natural gas vented from its wellheads exceeds the power that could be generated by the nuclear reactor under construction over its lifetime. # Strategic interest * control of fuel cycle This is also not credible: Iran does not have sufficient domestic uranium resources to achieve this objective. # Would make Russian proposals or external control unpalatable o Evidence of military intent + IAEA # Casting of uranium # Blueprints * allegedly sold by CIA # Secret facilities + Gas centrifuges * Scale of problem o Adds one more nuclear power to the region + Not very friendly to the west. + Widely seen as irrational players o Would take at least five years, probably rather more This is an incorrect reading of openly available intelligence. What the intelligence reports suggest is a timeframe of 3 years ± 2 years. Thatâs a significantly more urgent problem. * Players o Iran + Clergy # Has authority over military # Has issued fatwa against use or ownership of nuclear weapons # How much of a challenge to the theocratic rule would developing weapons be in the light of that? # Hard to say how much weight to attach to it. + President # Acts crazy # May be able to hold act against clerical power if he can hold popular opinion # Wasnât first choice of the clergy # Has had trouble getting appointees through parliament + Popular Opinion # Nukes seen a sign of strength in some quarters o US + Administration # Want to invade Iran Is there actual evidence of this? * Same pattern as in Iraq o Part of PNAC programme o Control over oil bearing area o Good for associated companies * Hide disaster there * Help in October elections Our elections are in November. # Honestly consider Iran an imminent threat * No evidence why they would How about the repeated statements of several different members of the Iranian regime? + Cui bono # Many interests o EU + What are our interests? Perhaps it bears mentioning here that Britain and France have made statements rejecting the credibility of Iranâs statements about its nuclear development program. Posted by: 3dc 2006-03-01 |
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