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NYT: Beware, Hamas will Radicalize
ERUSALEM, March 19 When the radical Islamic group Hamas presented a cabinet it dominates to the Palestinian Authority president, Mahmoud Abbas, on Sunday, Yossi Alpher was reminded of an earlier revolution.Mr. Alpher was an Israeli intelligence analyst on Iran from 1978 to 1980, and for him, the Hamas victory has the paradigm-shifting quality of the Iranian revolution that brought the mullahs of Shiite Islam to power. Today, he recognizes the same kind of dislocation. The "old Iran hands" were confident that the revolution could not last, he said, and that the mullahs would be tamed by the merchants of the Iranian bazaar, or the country's youth or the experience of power. "These people knew a very different Iran, and their analysis was not just useless but diversionary," he added. And, of all people, Jimmy Carter is one of those "old hands" who thinks Hamas will becomre more moderate. OF ALL PEOPLE! The guy who got his a** wiped by Iran! "I have an incredible sense of déjà vu now when I talk to Palestinians about Hamas," said Mr. Alpher, co-director of a Web site dedicated to Israeli-Palestinian dialogue. "Secular Palestinians don't understand what's happened. They don't know what the Muslim Brotherhood is all about. They're in a state of denial." the muslim brotherhood (or mobro, as we call 'em in the hood) is way scarier than the west gives them credit (or blame) for. After Hamas's victory in the Palestinian legislative elections, analysts and diplomats suggested that nothing fundamental would change: Hamas's win was not so resounding, some said, and its convictions would be moderated by power, keeping foreign aid and the peace effort continuing roughly as before. Jimmuh Cahtah's leading the pack, in fact. After all, the job of diplomacy, like antacids, is to try to make the inedible digestible. But as Hamas completes its cabinet, there is a sense that the landscape has changed for some time to come. The Hamas victory is not just a little local difficulty. Hamas is the Palestinian part of the Muslim Brotherhood and the first to win an election; its victory has enormous resonance for radical Islam heartened? emboldened? . It is a defeat for secular nationalism, Nasserite corporatism and for Fatah, the chosen partner of Washington and Israel. Many Muslims wish for Hamas to succeed, and some will give it money. The anxious Arab governments nearby especially Jordan, with its many Palestinians, and Egypt, with its active Muslim Brotherhood, but also fragile Syria will feel that they cannot set higher public hurdles for Hamas than, say, Russia or the European Union. why the f**k not! are they so afraid of a popular uprising and losing power just because they stand up to a bunch of hoodlums?!!?? Why not join the ranks of the civilized world? Jordan and Egypt are victims of terrorists, from the same people, albeit in a different form. Palestinian and Sunni, Hamas legislators say they are wary of further dependency on Iran and reject Al Qaeda. They say they prefer a period of quiet; how they will deal with Islamic Jihad, Iran's proxy in the Palestinian territories, remains unclear. prolly fund 'em. turn 'em into the "armed resistance" wing so Hamas can enjoy international legitimacy. New elections are not scheduled for four years. That gives Hamas's leaders, whom Mr. Alpher calls "pragmatic ideologues," time for their long-view strategy: softly, softly; slowly, slowly. by that time Israel will have separated completely and Hamas will have had enough time to create an Islamic paradise in paleoland. Hamas calls for national unity. It is likely to push a domestic agenda of reform and social welfare. It seems unlikely that it will fire the Fatah security commanders. When new legislators have talked of Islamicizing education or imposing Shariah law, Hamas has silenced them. al-yoda: talk not. only do. The indications are that Hamas will continue to talk tough toward Israel but maintain a cease-fire that has lasted roughly a year. It will give Israel no sufficient pretext to reinvade Gaza, where Hamas's army of 6,000 men can operate openly; will appeal to the world's Muslims for support; and will blame Israel and Washington for every deprivation i.e., business as usual. While many international officials want Hamas to be a partner, its leaders may have other ideas. On Jan. 30, five days after the election, the United States, the European Union, Russia and the United Nations known as the quartet warned that a Hamas-led government must recognize Israel, forswear violence and accept previous Israeli-Palestinian agreements. what a bunch 'o crapola. so let's say they did recognize Israel, forswear violence and accept agreements. what would that accomplish? they'd be lying. at least this way, they retain a modicum of integrity, odious as it may be Given what even a partial reduction of aid will mean for Palestinians, the quartet is looking for ways to soften those demands. the french contribution The quartet has pushed Mr. Abbas to postpone H-Day, when a Hamas government takes over, until after Israeli elections on March 28. Now the European Union and the United Nations say that a Hamas government should be given time to prepare a program before any aid cutoff. Some diplomats suggest that if Hamas supports a moribund 2002 Saudi peace initiative, it will somehow "recognize" Israel without having to say so; some suggest that a Hamas offer of another cease-fire may be enough to "forswear violence." But so far, Hamas is not playing along. It sees the agreements with Israel as a honey trap and recognition of Israel as impossible. In the meantime, Hamas is working on the heartstrings and sense of justice of the West, to keep aid flowing. Hamas's victory also signaled the death of the "peace process" as it has been practiced. oh. the peace process that calls for suicide bombs and kassam rockets? er, thanks anyway. The diplomatic assumptions of recent years a peace treaty after a territorial compromise, or "land for peace" have been blown apart. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon of Israel tried to redefine the bargain as "a state for security" an independent Palestinian state in return for dismantling all armed "terrorist" groups, including Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Al Aksa Martyrs Brigades. That was a commitment undertaken in the "road map" by Yasir Arafat and reconfirmed by Mr. Abbas. in english only. the arabic commitment was much different But it seems unlikely that Hamas will dismantle itself. Nor, its leaders say, will it abandon "the right of resistance to occupation." Its religious conviction is that all of Palestine, including the current state of Israel, is Islamic waqf land, land belonging irrevocably to the world's Muslims. and if they ONLY had the land occupied by the Zionists, the muslim world would flourish. We would see an explosion of muslim scientists, artists, doctors, philosophers, philanthropists....all contributing to improving the world. But the Jooooos are preventing all that. Hamas talks of a long-term armistice with Israel, so long as Israel returns to its 1967 boundaries, unannexes East Jerusalem and lets all refugees and their descendants return to their pre-1948 homes and move west into the Mediterranean Sea. The state of Israel itself, they insist, has no right to exist on waqf land. So with Hamas, the argument has moved from nationalism and territorial compromise, which can be negotiated, to religious conviction and a temporary Israeli lease on its sovereignty. In that light, the quartet seems to have given Israel a free pass for unilateral action. there's a better chance for a lasting peace with Israeli unilateral action than there is through "negotiating" anyway. Israel, which has done little to support Mr. Abbas, now says it has no partner. Hamas gives Israel more freedom in the West Bank, creating borders, thickening settlements, or dismantling them, as it pleases. Last Tuesday, as troops crushed a Jericho prison to extract wanted men, acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Israel would keep the settlement bloc of Ariel in the West Bank. Washington did not complain. Posted by: PlanetDan 2006-03-20 |
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