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US casualties in Iraq falling steadily since the summer
Gunmen in police uniform kill and kidnap at electronics shops. A mosque raid draws government charges that U.S. troops run Iraqi forces beyond its control. Bodies turn up on streets as militia death squads roam freely.This weeks violence in Iraq suggests the conflict has entered an ominous new stage where crime gangs, Sunni Arab insurgents and pro-government Shia militias overlap as violence pushes the country closer to sectarian civil war. What began with a murky Sunni revolt against occupation and then the US-backed interim government has exploded into a communal and criminal battlefield where determining who is killing whom -- let alone why -- is getting harder every day. The Sunni insurgency is now complemented by the Shia militias who are getting very powerful and are able to wreak havoc on the Sunnis, said Martin Navias, at the Centre for Defence Studies at Kings College in London. The various groups are killing each other and kidnapping but not openly doing it. It is a type of ethnic cleansing. But it is not an open civil war. Iraqi leaders are struggling to form a unity government more than three months after elections, raising concerns that a widening political vacuum will foster ever more violence. Analysts say that while the new trends were alarming, there were no signs that the violence is about to spill over into open warfare with street battles between Iraqs main Shia, Arab Sunni and ethnic Kurdish groups. A fall in American casualties since last summer suggests that US troops, with growing numbers of Iraqi allies, have made gains over insurgents. March should show one of the lowest monthly US death tolls of the war, possibly the lowest in two years. But measuring success in those terms on that conventional military front is easier than gauging progress in the battle against a complex network of criminals, militias and insurgents -- all of whom can show up in police or army uniforms. Gunmen dressed as police commandos -- precise accounts of the uniforms varied -- killed nine people in an attack on an electronics store in Baghdad on Wednesday, one of a series of raids against lucrative businesses in the capital this week. Workers, including women, were rounded up and then killed. On Monday and Tuesday, a total of 35 people were abducted in four attacks, including two on electronics dealers and one on a money-changer where the attackers also stole $50,000. Determining whether they were criminals or insurgents seeking funds seems impossible in Iraqs chaos. Police officers in the area where the raids were carried out said they had no idea who was responsible. Many security groups work in Iraq and nobody knows who they are or what they are doing, said one police lieutenant colonel, who would give his name only as the familiar Abu Mohammed for fear of reprisals from his shadowy adversaries. There are now many organised crime groups working under formal cover, as militias or security companies. Its hard to figure out who they are, let alone who is behind them. One businessman who said he was familiar with some of the businesses targeted said several belonged to one man, suggesting attacks by racketeers. That could not be confirmed, however. Hazim Al Naimi, a politics professor at Baghdads Mustansiriya University, said the raids were another disturbing sign that the conflict has been escalating since the bombing of a Shia shrine last month touched off bloody reprisals. Since then, hundreds of bodies have turned up in the streets, many shot or strangled with signs of torture. The crisis has become very complicated now. We are seeing raids on electronics shops that make no sense. It could be a campaign to wreck the economy so Iraqis dont set up businesses. Its hard to tell, said Naimi. Al Qaedas Abu Musab Al Zarqawi, the man who has been most predictable in Iraqs conflict, has been keeping a low profile. His suicide bombers have eased off, leading Interior Minister Bayan Jabor to conclude Zarqawi is no longer a threat. But US officers say he is shifting attacks away from American soldiers and Shia civilians to Iraqi security forces and more targeted killing, raising fears of new violence as the authorities try to grapple with deepening mayhem. Long-term stability ultimately depends on whether Iraqi forces can take on militants and insurgents on their own. US commanders have been praising Iraqi special forces for a raid on a Baghdad mosque compound on Sunday night which left what they said were 16 terrorists dead. But as government-run state television showed lengthy footage of the bullet-ridden bodies, Shia leaders accused the Americans of a massacre of unarmed worshippers and directing Iraqi forces without a green light from the Iraqi government. Police and local residents said the compound was a base for the Mehdi Army, a Shia militia. But the US military says it still has no idea who the 16 were despite extensive intelligence work ahead of the raid and the rescue of a tortured hostage. People ought to be focused on the fact that 50 members of the Iraqi special operations forces planned and conducted this. And it was flawless. Flawless, US Major General Rick Lynch told a news conference on Thursday. Posted by: Dan Darling 2006-04-01 |
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