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Suddenly, Mexico Changed
Swaddled in a pale green blanket, 3-day-old Luis Ernesto Gómez dozed away in his mother's arms, unaware that his birth was part of the end of an era."My father came from a family of 11 children. I came from a family of four children," said Luis' mother, María Elena Cervantes. "Me, I'm having two. That's it." Therein lies a major historic shift: Mexico, a predominantly Roman Catholic country where huge families were once the norm, is sending the stork packing after just two children. It's a development that could affect U.S. immigration as Mexico's population growth slows to a crawl and the trend toward smaller families leads to more disposable income. After decades of decline, the national fertility rate dropped to a milestone 2.1 children per woman last year, according to Mexico's National Population Council. That puts Mexico's rate about even with the United States (2.08), lower than most Latin American countries, and it means more couples are using birth control and straying from Catholic teachings. Census experts refer to 2.1 children as the "natural replacement rate," meaning Mexico is just barely replacing the generations who will die in coming years. Hispanic immigrants in the United States are now reproducing at a faster rate, 2.8 children per woman, than Mexicans in Mexico. Sociologists say that is because immigrants tend to be less educated and come from poorer, rural areas of Mexico. "Here in Mexico, we have seen a substantial decline in fertility rates, and it's fundamentally due to the increasing education level of women and their participation in economic life," said Carlos Welti, a population expert at the National Autonomous University of Mexico... Whoa. Bolt out of the blue. In past, economists have noted that (varying between countries), at a particular point, a plateau, in national economic development, birth rate suddenly plummets to 2.1 per family. This begins an extended period of economic prosperity and political stability. Posted by: Anonymoose 2006-04-04 |
| http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=147396 |