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Field Notes: World War 4, Gulf Theater
I am posting this to elicit input from the Rantburg group. I read spectator.org for the politix, but this guy, John Batchelor, who I believe to be a radio host, keeps posting these gloomy assessments of the US/Iran conflict. The common theme is that they are in great shape vs. the US militarily. Today he stated that the Iranian wargames are successful and indicated capabilities I did not know they had, like a German electric boat:1. You will recall that Ahmadinejad vanished from the scene for ten days in February. Now confirmed that he spent his ten days at the new Gulf Operations HQ, site of the command and control for the recent Great Prophet war games. Successful demonstration of headquarters, subordinate headquarters, linked by secure communications, linked to National Command Center at Tehran. 2. During the games, National Command Center conducted successful simulation of ballistic missile launch. This means a nuclear warhead launch. Missile type identified as Fajar 3, or Victory 3. Resembles the body of a Russian SS-4 with a mirved warhead resembling Iskander 3, likely Chinese and or Russian assist. Mirved warhead also associated with distribution to Syria. 3. Announcements of test firings by two types of underwater warheads. Both Russian designs. The cavitation weapon is likely the KV111, rebuilt, and was likely acquired from Ukraine Black Sea Fleet. The Whale torpedo demonstrated in the Straits of Hormuz is Russian design, likely from the Black Sea Fleet. The torpedo maneuvered the shallows and depths of the Straits. The Whale is built for targeting big ships, such as carriers or supertankers. 4. Rebuilt German electric boat deployed and operational in Gulf: this is smaller than German original, aimed at operations on Gulf bottom and in crowded shipping lanes. Also Kilo boats (Russian made) deployed in Indian Ocean from Mozambique to Pakistan. No information if the Kilo boats are using the silencing technology avaiable. 5. Emphasize command and control and communications for all this equipment was successful. Does this mean satellite linkage? Does this mean AWACs? 6. Area of war games operation extended from from the Iraqi coast to Straits of Hormuz. Practicing for a crisis, both blocking the Straits, assault on Gulf oil and transportation facilities. 5. Analysis to follow. Snarky thought: Fifth Fleet is MacArthur, 1941. To the extent I am qualified to perform the analysis, I believe that it's highly unlikely that Iran has made so many simultaneous advances even with Russian, Chinese, Ukranian and Pak help. However, I do believe that the proliferation of modern air to air missiles, anti-shipping missiles, torpedoes and air independent subs to a wack job country that already has IRBMs is a not good. I can only hope that the Navy and Air Force have been paying attention and that, in some ways, an air and naval battle vs. Iran would be easier for our military than the counterinsurgency slog in Iraq in that we trained for it. I do think Batchelor's observation that the Iranians successfully communicated is trivial. We were not trying to stop them, after all. Posted by: JAB 2006-04-05 |
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