|
Steyn's Iran Plan
From the City Journal, so a severe EFL. If you divide the world into geographical regions, then, Irans neither here nor there. But if you divide it ideologically, the mullahs are ideally positioned at the center of the various provinces of Islamthe Arabs, the Turks, the Stans, and the south Asians. Who better to unite the Muslim world under one inspiring, courageous leadership? If theres going to be an Islamic superpower, Tehran would seem to be the obvious candidate. That moment of ascendancy is now upon us. Or as the Daily Telegraph in London reported: Irans hardline spiritual leaders have issued an unprecedented new fatwa, or holy order, sanctioning the use of atomic weapons against its enemies. Hmm. Im not a professional mullah, so I cant speak to the theological soundness of the argument, but it seems a religious school in the Holy City of Qom has ruled that the use of nuclear weapons may not constitute a problem, according to sharia. Well, theres a surprise. How do you solve a problem? Like, sharia! Its the one-stop shop for justifying all your geopolitical objectives. The bad cop/worse cop routine the mullahs and their hothead President Ahmadinejad are playing in this period of alleged negotiation over Irans nuclear program is the best indication of how all negotiations with Iran will go once theyre ready to fly. This is the nuclear version of the NRA bumper sticker: Guns Dont Kill People. People Kill People. Nukes dont nuke nations. Nations nuke nations. When the Argentine junta seized British sovereign territory in the Falklands, the generals knew that the United Kingdom was a nuclear power, but they also knew that under no conceivable scenario would Her Majestys Government drop the big one on Buenos Aires. The Argie generals were able to assume decency on the part of the enemy, which is a useful thing to be able to do. But in any contretemps with Iran the other party would be foolish to make a similar assumption. That will mean the contretemps will generally be resolved in Irans favor. In fact, if one were a Machiavellian mullah, the first thing one would do after acquiring nukes would be to hire some obvious loon like President Ahmaddamatree to front the program. Hes the equivalent of the yobbo in the English pub who says, Oy, mate, you lookin at my bird? You havent given her a glance, or him; youre at the other end of the bar head down in the Daily Mirror, trying not to catch his eye. You dont know whether hes longing to nut you in the face or whether he just gets a kick out of terrifying you into thinking he wants to. But, either way, you just want to get out of the room in one piece. Kooks with nukes is one-way deterrence squared. Once again, we face a choice between bad and worse options. There can be no surgical strike in any meaningful sense: Irans clients on the ground will retaliate in Iraq, Lebanon, Israel, and Europe. Nor should we put much stock in the countrys allegedly pro-American youth. This shouldnt be a touchy-feely nation-building exercise: rehabilitation may be a bonus, but the primary objective should be punishmentand incarceration. Its up to the Iranian people how nutty a government they want to live with, but extraterritorial nuttiness has to be shown not to pay. That means swift, massive, devastating force that decapitates the regimebut no occupation. The cost of de-nuking Iran will be high now but significantly higher with every year its postponed. The lesson of the Danish cartoons is the clearest reminder that what is at stake here is the credibility of our civilization. Whether or not we end the nuclearization of the Islamic Republic will be an act that defines our time. A quarter-century ago, there was a minor British pop hit called Ayatollah, Dont Khomeini Closer. If youre a U.S. diplomat or a British novelist, a Croat Christian or an Argentine Jew, hes already come way too close. How much closer do you want him to get? Posted by: Steve 2006-04-11 |
| http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=148024 |