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FT Germany: Hoping in Vain for U.S. and Iranian Restraint
We don't know how many years it will be before Iran has a nuclear weapon at its disposal. Nor do we know if in the remaining two and a half years of his administration, American president George W. Bush is prepared to bomb Iran if it doesn't give up its nuclear program.But we do know this: The American president says publicly that for the destruction of the Iranian nuclear program, even the use of tactical nuclear weapons is legitimate. Those familiar with the Pentagon warn that the U.S. Defense Department's most recent war plans against Iran are more than routine planning for a remote possibility. In Iran meanwhile, the leadership seems determined to continue their nuclear program; and they have gotten their people accustomed to the idea that there could be a war with the United States, as shown by the recruiting of potential suicide bombers. Europeans still hope that this is just sabre-rattling by both sides; that on the one hand, Bush will have neither the will nor the ability, in the midst of the Iraq debacle, to engage in an adventure in Iran; and that on the other hand Teheran, considering the threats from Israel and the U.S., will bow to the demands of the international community and abandon the enrichment of uranium within Iran proper. BEYOND REALITY The crisis may have a happy ending. Still, it's time that Europe's optimists understand that their optimism depends in part on faulty assumptions. The argument that because of the intervention in Iraq, American forces are stretched thin, so wouldn't be able to conduct an attack on Iran misses the point: a very large U.S. air attack against Iranian facilities would be possible even on short notice, assuming forces were ready to repel subsequent Iranian retaliation. Analyzing the domestic political dynamics in the U.S. or Iran is also misleading. Four weeks ago I wrote that an air attack on Iran would be a distraction from the failure of Bush's Iraq adventure and from his own domestic weakness. But such reasoning would also be a bit cynical: Bush, say those familiar with the White House, is of the opinion that he himself must stop Iran's nuclear program, because none of his successors would have the guts to order such an attack. [..] Posted by: 3dc 2006-04-26 |
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