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USN would keelhaul Iranian "Navy"
From Geostrategy Direct and I do not have the URLThink tank: U.S. could easily stop Iran from closing Strait of Hormuz WASHINGTON Iran lacks the capability to block the world's leading shipping route for crude oil exports, according to a new report by a Washington think tank. The Center for Strategic and International Studies said the Iranian navy, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has failed to procure platforms or weapons required to block the Strait of Hormuz, the passageway for 60 percent of the world's oil trade. In a report, the Washington-based center said the United States could block any Iranian attempt to attack Gulf shipping, particularly from the sea. "Iran could not close the Strait of Hormuz, or halt tanker traffic, and its submarines and much of its IRGC forces would probably be destroyed in a matter of days if they become operational," the report said. The assertion undermined an Iranian warning to threaten the global oil trade if attacked by the United States. The warning was issued during the Holy Prophet exercise in the Gulf, which took place from March 31 to April 6. Authored by Anthony Cordesman and Khalid Al-Rodhan, the report said Iran could seek to disrupt Gulf oil traffic from land-based facilities. The report, "Iranian Nuclear Weapons? The Options if Diplomacy Fails," envisioned Iranian missile strikes on oil facilities in Iraq and the southern Gulf region in response to a U.S. air strike. "Even sporadic random strikes would create a high risk premium and potential panic in oil markets," the report said. Still, the report said, the Iranian navy remains highly vulnerable and would be quickly overwhelmed by a U.S. attack. The navy has deployed such assets as the Raad anti-ship missile, with a range of up to 100 kilometers and deployed near the Strait of Hormuz. The navy also operates three "relatively effective" Kilo-class submarines procured from Russia, the report said. The underwater platforms have been equipped with mines as well as long-range wire-guided torpedoes. The report said the IRGC naval branch operates 10 Hudong missile patrol boats with sea-skimming anti-ship missiles. The force also deploys C-14 high-speed catamarans and 40 Bohammar Marine patrol boats. "Many are so small they are difficult to detect with ship-borne radars," the report said. "They can conduct suicide attacks, or release floating mines covertly in shipping lanes or near key facilities." The report also dismissed the effectiveness of Iran's air defense umbrella. Cordesman and Al Rodhan said Iran's arsenal of aging Western- or Russian-origin surface-to-air missile batteries could be quickly neutralized by U.S. countermeasures. "All of its major systems are based on technology that is now more than 35 years old, and all are vulnerable to U.S. use of active and passive countermeasures," the report said. "Iran's air defense forces are too widely spaced to provide more than limited air defense for key bases and facilities, and many lack the missile launcher strength to be fully effective." Posted by: Brett 2006-05-01 |
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