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Seoul
This is purely personal opinion and mostly to see what sort of response might be forthcoming from RBers. I'm no expert on Korea. Just a guy who's read a bunch of stuff. Here's what I've taken away from that spotty self-education. I'm sure there are all sorts of solid objections out there, but this is how it appears to me today.Seoul. Seoul translates to "capitol". Due to its proximity to the border, Seoul has been vulnerable to NKor artillery attack since the ceasefire of July, 1953. There is some off and on political will (proponents: Park, 1978; Roh, 2002) to relocate "Seoul" to the Chungchong region (in the center of SKor) by 2014. Looks like that's going to be too late, IMO and it's far easier said than done. Greater Seoul is actually 13 adjoining cities, IIRC, represents 12% of SKor territory, approx 25% of the population, and approx 50% of the economic output. It is now vulnerable to SCUDs, (Nodongs, Rodongs, DingDongs) as well as artillery. When NKor could only threaten SKor, Seoul in particular, it made strategic sense to have US troops there to deter attack and to make it clear Seoul, though extremely vulnerable, would be the tripwire and would be defended at all costs. It was an effective deterrent. SKor was satisfied with this arrangement since they almost universally harbor a deep desire for reunification and were willing to live with the situation and walk the tightrope of Seoul's vulnerability in hopes of finding a route leading to that end. 53 years of stalemate have passed without reunification. Nothing has actually changed except NorK has acquired far more dangerous weapons than artillery and SCUDs. The equation has also become regional, since NKor can now threaten Japan - and soon the US. Japan is enough, however, to change the military picture and the US has been reassessing the situation since learning of NKor advances in nuclear weapons and delivery systems. Adding in the political changes in SKor further alters the logical US view and position regards defending Seoul with US forces. Seoul is no longer the only "asset" under threat and the present tripwire is an obsolete response. Before NKor can effectively deliver on the threat beyond Seoul, it must be neutralized. Utterly and completely. Permanently. Will NKor attack Seoul if attacked? Almost certainly. The decades of stalemate have yielded no reasonable chance of a reunification other than capitulation by SKor. The SKor gambit has failed. Even if SKor were to suddenly begin serious efforts to reunify, it would not change the threat situation as no one could reasonably believe that NorK would disarm and Japan would still be vulnerable. On the contrary, that is most likely what Kim Jong Il prays for: SKor capitulation saving his regime and fanatical cult military and boosting his technological and industrial capabilities 100-fold. Should we wait for him to perfect missiles that can reliably hit Japan and the US with nuclear payloads? That is his clear intention. He has the nuclear warheads, we're told. We can see he's working on the delivery systems. He'll eventually create a working package that will truly threaten the existence of Japan and the Western half of the US. There is nothing to stop him, except either being militarily destroyed or sealed off via some impervious layered ABM systems. The problem is that an ABM system would not be a solution, since none are perfect and we are talking about nuclear weapons. It would merely be more stalemate, more stop-gap. Another decade, perhaps much less, of makeshift defense from an insane regime which would be busily working to overcome the ABM systems. And what if there was a sudden reunification, voluntary or not? That would likely accelerate events dramatically. Trusting the SKor population not to do the stupidest thing imaginable is not something I care to do. The threat grows every day. Japan is already under the gun. Trying to perfect systems which will be able to shoot down NorK missiles is not a permanent answer. Kim Jong Il will not disarm or cease attempting to become a global nuclear power. We have but one alternative that can be termed a real solution. Time's up. Game over. Obliterate everything in NorK. Seoul is forfeit. Always has been. My $0.02. P.S. Another amateur opinion: Start selling any stock in SKor companies whose manufacturing facilities and equipment yards are within 200-250 miles of the DMZ. I'm not talking about HQ offices - I mean the real stuff, the equipment, the rolling stock, the plants. Perhaps, if you're a real smart gambler, start buying stock in construction (road, and rail, for example) companies whose equipment and manufaturing facilities are beyond 200-250 miles from the DMZ. They'll have to rebuild. Posted by: Gravirong Angarong2242 2006-07-12 |
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