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Thoughts on Leb...
There's a pretty complicated genesis to Hezbollah's jump into Israel's fight with Hamas in Gaza, but I think I agree in outline with Eyal Zisser's analysis in the Jerusalem Post. Attacks against Israel, in particular kidnappings of Israelis that could lead to prisoner exchanges, boost Hizbullah's popularity in the Middle East, especially at a time that the militia group is under regional and international pressure to disarm, said Eyal Zisser of Tel Aviv University's Dayan Center.
But in the eyes of many groups, some within Lebanon, who call the group a "danger to stability," Wednesday's activities may just prove them right, Zisser said.
"It's good for their prestige," Zisser said, referring to Hizbullah. Based on previous incidents, the militia group was gambling that Israel's response to Wednesday's attack would be restrained, he said...
But a wide-scale outbreak of violence could backfire for the group, especially if Lebanese citizens feel Hizbullah is to blame.
"These operations reinforce [Nasrallah's] position. It's an matter of image," Zisser said. Nasrallah "is a gambler. He is hoping he will benefit from these actions."
Hizbullah gained much recognition in the Arab world in 2004 when it won the release of hundreds of prisoners from Israeli prisons in exchange for an Israeli businessman and the bodies of three IDF soldiers. It is also widely seen as responsible for Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon after an 18-year presence.
Zisser said that from Hizbullah's perspective, its actions Wednesday did not constitute an escalation, because it had both attempted and carried out similar operations in the past. Hezbollah's under pressure within Leb due to Resolution 1559. They have to "prove" that they're protecting Leb against Israeli aggression. The way to do that's to keep the pot stirred on the border, get a little aggression going now and then, but to keep it at a level they can handle, thus enhancing their heroic Arab warrior image. As long as Hamas is kidnapping Israeli troops, Hassan figures he might as well join in the fun. The 2004 negotiations and exchange tell him that there's not going to be much of a penalty and it'll make Hezbollah look tough.
I don't think anyone's under any illusions that was a spontaneous decision by Hezbollah. Larijani arrived in Damascus the day before the kidnappings so he could be close at hand for the festivities. We can guess that Teheran has been pressuring Nasrallah even as Ahmadinejad's been howling for the destruction of Israel. Damascus needs a fight so Assad can "prove" that Leb needs Syrian occupation just to stave off civil war. Beirut's been steering a dangerously independent course since the Hariri assassination and the overt Syrian puppets within the country have been looking increasingly shabby.
Nasrallah and possibly the puppeteers in Teheran miscalculated the effect of the kidnappings. Certainly they mistimed them. Leb's getting a thorough thumping -- Beirut airport is under attack as of this morning, expensive and painfully reconstructed infrastructure's being reduced to rubble, and Hezb is blowing off hundreds of Katyushas. There are the usual noises in the International Community about Israeli "overreaction," but the Lebs are left with the distinct problem of an act of war having been committed by an organization that's part of the government but which they don't control.
Siniora's cabinet's stated that the government's not responsible, but the Leb ambassador to Washington said, stupidly, that the government stands behind The Resistance. Parties in Beirut are looking frantically to see which way to jump. Hassan's taken away all the middle ground: the government's either got to condone the actions and enter a state of war with Israel, thereby putting them firmly back in the Syrian/Iranian camp and on the road to another occupation and possibly civil war, or they've got to condemn the actions and shut down Hezbollah, which they aren't able to do.
Posted by: Fred 2006-07-13 |
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=159048 |
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