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Israel Sets Conditions for Cease-Fire
Israel would agree to a cease-fire in its six-day-old offensive against Hezbollah if the Lebanese guerrillas withdraw from the border area with Israel and release two captured Israeli soldiers, a senior official said Monday. The official, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the diplomacy, said Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert had conveyed Israel's position to Italy's prime minister, who is trying to broker a cease-fire deal.
Israel had previously demanded the full dismantling of Hezbollah as a condition for ending hostilities. However, the senior official said Israel would agree to Hezbollah merely leaving the border area _ with the Lebanese army taking its place.
Big. Mistake.
Not to worry: this is like GWB demanding that the Taliban hand over OBL. Wasn't gonna happen, and Dubya knew it in advance. That freed his hands to do what needed to be done.
The Israelis know that Hezbollah can't pull back from the border. The whole point of Hezbollah's existence is that they're one of the only terrorist resistance movements directly confronting the evil Jooooz. Take that away and there's no point to supporting them. They have to be on the border to have a role, so they won't pull back.
Likewise, Hezbollah isn't going to just hand back the prisoners: the point of snatching them was to barter for the release of Paleo terrorists prisoners currently held by the Israelis. A successful swap would demonstrate to all the Paleos and other Arabs in the region that Hezbollah is big-heat. Likewise, handing the prisoners back meekly while being pounded would demonstrate that Hezbollah is a bunch of pansies.
The demands seem reasonable to the rest of the world, or at least reasonable enough that days will be wasted by the striped-pants crowd trying to work out an 'accomodation'. In the meantime the IAF continues to gob-smack the Hez terrs. I predict that when the point comes that the Euros try to force the Israelis to cease and desist, the Israelis will come up with another set f seemingly-reasonable demands that will prolong the process. |
Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2006-07-17 |
