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Belmont Club: IDF is "a knife-thrower at the carnival" in Lebanon
Kofi Annan has accused Israel of deliberately targeting UN position in southern Lebanon. . . . In order to have some sense of how plausible this accusation is, it would be useful to examine the statements of the UNIFIL itself prior to this incident. Ever since hostilities started UNIFIL has been documenting its activity through a series of press releases. These provide a snapshot into what the UN troops were doing and how they have been faring during the period of combat.Wretchard gives a nice long item-by-item summary at the link. UNIFIL's official mandate is to a) Confirm the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon; b) Restore international peace and security; c) Assist the Government of Lebanon in ensuring the return of its effective authority in the area. If each of the press releases is read in their entirety is manifestly clear that UNIFIL is performing none of these authorized missions. Instead it has become a kind of ambulance and relief service for the killed and injured on the Lebanese side of the border. The releases are peppered with accounts of UNIFIL personnel escorting what are described as civilians and villagers to places of safety. This is not really part of its mandate, which is not to say that it is immoral or wrong. Given how some UN peacekeepers have treated civillians in the recent past, UNIFIL should probably be commended for acting with basic decency. All the incidents of IDF fire reported in the press releases are clearly related to some kind of nearby combat with the Hezbollah. In one case the IDF fired on a village into which the UNIFIL had gone, but rockets had originated from the vicinity of the village prior. In another case, an Israeli aerial bombardment detonated mines all around a UNIFIL position. Those mines were presumably not planted by UNIFIL, but they were so close to it that the UN position caught fire. The UN observation post in Maroun al-Ras was hit by artillery, but we know from press reports that Maroun al-Ras was the epicenter of heavy fighting and the location of a Hezbollah bunker complex. The UN even ran a convoy from the Hezbollah "capital" of Bint Jubayl to another area. Bint Jubayl is well known to be the target of an IDF attack. Yet the UN felt that it was possible to move convoys through such areas, albeit at considerable danger. One reason that they could was that UNIFIL was evidently in contact with the IDF. In a sentence which speaks volumes we learn that "One unarmed UN military observer, a member of the Observer Group Lebanon (OGL), was seriously wounded by small arms fire in the patrol base in the Marun Al Ras area yesterday afternoon. According to preliminary reports, the fire originated from the Hezbollah side during an exchange with the IDF. He was evacuated by the UN to the Israeli side, from where he was taken by an IDF ambulance helicopter to a hospital in Haifa." This strongly implies that UNFIL was able to coordinate their movements with the IDF and that the IDF was willing to risk men and aircraft to help UNFIL. Now a lot will be made of UN positions being "clearly marked". However nearly all of the fire reported on UN positions with the exception of the July 23 indicident in Kiyam, where the 4 UN observers were killed today, were from artillery, which is an area weapon. Artillery, depending on the angle and range from which it is fired, has a certain dispersion even allowing for crew perfection. (In contrast UNIFIL took small arms fire from the Hezbollah between Kunin and Bint Jubayl and small arms can only be used when visual contact is made). Imperfections in shell manufacture, operator error, barrel wear etc can cause an artillery round to fall off target. It is not called an area weapon for nothing. The one exception was a tank round that landed in a Ghanain position. But the firing was evidently not repeated which it would have had the tank gunner intended to destroy the Ghanaians. The July 23 incident in Kiyam in "seven incidents of firing close to UN positions" involving aerial bombardment strongly suggests that Hezbollah positions were fairly close to the position of Observer Group Lebanon. It should be clear by now that the IDF had certainly not been deliberately targeting UNIFIL from July 17 to 25. How likely is it that the IDF after not aiming at UNIFIL should suddenly change their policy and aim to kill the observers at Kiyam, as categorically stated by UN Secretary General Kofi Annan? One argument that will be heard is that since Israel has "precision weapons" the hit on the UN positions must have been deliberate. Yet it's far more likely that the UNIFIL position was hit by mistake. Even with "precision weapons" the IDF has lost 2 men and 5 wounded to friendly fire so far. . . . Commentary To recapitulate, the UNIFIL is running a kind of ambulance service on the Lebanese side of the border. That is not its official mission; it has failed in its official mission but its men are obviously performing with considerable perseverance and bravery. UNIFIL are able to run convoys in an area where the Hezbollah are shifting squads around while the IDF doing its best to kill the Hezbollah. Yet until July 26 the UNIFIL had not suffered any fatalities from IDF fire. Their sole serious injury to that date had actually been caused by the Hezbollah, and the injured UN trooper was evacuated by the IDF to an Israeli hospital. The IDF has for its part avoided hitting UNIFIL or their civilian convoys despite its widely publicized use of artillery and air. Far from being random, the IDF is apparently able to create safe corridors in active battle zones through which UNIFIL can pass until the recent incident in Kiyam. There are probably very few military organizations in the world which can accomplish this. Nevertheless, the danger of friendly fire naturally remains. The two IDF personnel probably killed and five wounded from friendly fire is proof of that. . . . Considering the fact that UNIFIL peacekeeping mission was a dead-letter it should naturally be asked why Kofi Annan, as their ultimate commander has seen fit to keep them in a position of danger where their only chance of safety actually depends on accurate targeting by the IDF. Their positions are manifestly so close to the Hezbollah; their convoys so at risk at being confused with mobile Hezbollah forces that only by the grace of God and the accuracy of the IDF have fatalities been avoided until now. They were willing to take the risk. Annan was willing to make the hay. You be the judge of Kofi Annan's competence both in the care of his men and with respect to the accusation he has made against the IDF. Posted by: Mike 2006-07-26 |
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