|
Ehud Olmert is brilliant
To understand what happened during the last month, we need to consider several questions.(A) What Israel needs re Lebanon? (B) What is the opposition Israel faces? (C) How quickly it can be accomplished? What Israel needs is: (i) to hold South Lebanon up to the Litani = defensible border, and (ii) freedom to retaliate/preempt terror attacks from the rest of Lebanon. The opposition = (i) Lebanese & (ii) the rest of the World. The last includes our only ally USA, for two reasons. (i) USA has plans for Lebanese democracy (won't work any better than Iraqi democracy, but...). (ii) USA has a, not just ideological, interest in survival of Israelbut not in Israel powerful enough to be independent of USA. The process simply cannot be accomplished in one stroke (vide Iraq where US military won in a few weeks, and been bleeding for 3 years. Or, for that matter, the first (1982) IDF incursion into Lebanon). Now, what IDF managed to accomplish under the "incompetent" leadership of Olmert? The Lebanese (a) South Lebanese As the 1982 - 2000 period shown, Israel cannot hold South Lebanon with its population. Right now, the population is mostly gone, and their support infrastructure is being systematically destroyed in the process of Hizbi hunting. (b) Rest of the country. Suffered a significant degradation of its infrastructure and will require significant international help to rebuilt. And given Arab (Muslim or Christian) venality, we are talking (i) huge sums and (ii) fighting over the loot (there is also a minor advantage of less money for Paleos). Rest of the World. One of Israel's principal enemies, MSM, suffered a significant loss of credibility. Another, the UN, appears to be a winner now, but once it confronts the realities on the ground ... Bush's administration suffered more than a little embarrassment caving in to the Fwench. This being an election year, I expect to see a competition between Rep & Dem as to who is more pro-Israel. To summarize, Israel will start the next round (does anybody here doubts there's going to be a next round?) with some advantages. Posted by: gromgoru 2006-08-12 |
| http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=162722 |