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US: Iran could have nuclear bomb in four years
Washington - The top U.S. intelligence official says Iran could have a nuclear weapon within four to nine years, but that it still has time to turn away from that path. Speaking in his top floor office overlooking the Potomac River, Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte says Iran is determined to get nuclear weapons and will have them soon if not deterred from its current course.

"We do not have any fast facts that could demonstrate to you a particular date by which we are certain Iran will have a nuclear weapon," he said. "But yes, it is our judgment, based on all the information available to us, that Iran is determined to acquire nuclear weapons and, secondly, that they are on a path to achieve that within the next several years. The estimate that we have made is that somewhere between 2010 and 2015 is when we judge Iran is likely to have a nuclear weapon if it continues on its current course."
Reminder: the intelligence community said in 1947 that the USSR could have an atomic bomb in 5 to 10 years. The Soviets exploded one the following year.
Negroponte says that even though Iran does not yet have any nuclear weapons capability, evidence that it is moving in that direction is persuasive. "You have to have insights into intention, you have to look at past behavior," he added. "I mean, among the factors we consider in the case of Iran is that in the past they've had a secret military program until it was revealed. We know that for 20 or 30 years Iran has been interested in acquiring nuclear capability. You can judge from their procurement practices. There is a whole variety of indicators that you can look at to get some sense of exactly what the intentions of a country are."

Asked if the intelligence failure on Iraq complicates convincing people of Iran's intentions, Negroponte admits that people do raise that issue, but adds that the intelligence system is much improved. "We have done quite a bit of work on 'lessons learned' from the situation in Iraq, different mechanisms and procedures to improve the quality of our intelligence collection and analysis and our judgments," he added. "And, secondly, I think our principal partners and friends in the international community share with us exactly the same concern about Iran's intentions."
Posted by: Steve White 2006-10-04
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=167650