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Want to fight back against the left?
600K people in the congressional district400K voters in the congressional district, 40% turnout Historically, that's very high for an off year congressional, 35-37 is much more typical, but it looks like it could go as high as 42% this year. Split the difference and call it 40%. So that means there will be 160K votes cast. Polls indicate that the Challenger, Osama Murtha, , is taking advantage of the media frenzy and one-sided reporting on Iraq, and is ahead by 53 or 54 to 46 or 47 amongst likely voters. The Press is telling everyone Osama Murtha has this one in the bag, and so some of incumbent conservative Rudy Patton's backers just go through the motions, or sit it out like Cut-n-Run Libertarians, c.f. Bill The election comes, and the challenger wins 52%-48%. Polls had him up by 7-8%, but there was a bit of closing rush due to the Kerry flap and TV ad money pouring in, as well as due to sampling errors they were off by 3% (typical these days against conservatives, they tend to be less accessible to pollsters for a variety of reasons and thus tend to be frequently under-sampled). Posted by: OldSpook 2006-11-03 |
| http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=170714 |