Austin Bay: Iraq Study Group is a political facade
I do believe Col. Bay may be on to something here . . .
The Baker-Hamilton study group will not produce any new thinking. The U.S. military has analyzed and gamed every course of action, including cut and run. For that matter, it gamed non-intervention in Iraq as well.
What Baker and Hamilton provide is political cover for Democrats. Our plan has been a sound one build Iraqi security and political institutions to the point US and coalition forces move to strategic overwatch. John Murtha suggested we move our troops to Okinawa thats a little bit far, but hey, hes going to be the new House majority leader so we will be entertained with similar Murtha quips for the next two years. Be prepared. 2009 is the earliest date I see strategic overwatch beginning and that assumes Pelosi and her clan dont go with Murtha and Cindy Sheehan.
Which is where Baker-Hamilton comes in. Baker-Hamilton is an academic committee. I guarantee the John Kerry-level strategic geniuses who participated in the study have radcially differing views of the issues, different definitions of problems, and a spectrum of mutually-incoherent policy prescriptions. (Like I said, its an academic committee.) My bet is the Baker-Hamilton consensus will ultimately reflect Jim Bakers and Lee Hamiltons two-man consensus (in other words, truth in packaging unusual in government and academia).
If we are lucky, the Baker-Hamilton magic show will drop a scarf over the top hat and with a the poof of a New York Times headline produce a unifying policy of words that will let the Democrats join the war, despite the howls of their blogosphere nutsroots.
Then the military will continue to do what its been doing in Iraq and Afghanistan and the new Iraqi government will continue to learn by doing and in the ordeal of war that will mean learn by bleeding, suffering, and sweating.
Posted by: Mike 2006-11-14 |