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More from Pepe Escobar, after Jakarta
More "interesting" stuff from PepeTHE ROVING EYE Jihad virus attacks Pentagon logic By Pepe Escobar BANGKOK - Pentagon spin, via Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, has it that "Iraq now is the central battle in the war on terrorism." Al-Qaedaâs No 2, Ayman al-Zawahiri, aka The Surgeon, has proved Wolfowitz, the Pentagonâs No 2, wrong. Proved? Al-Zawahiri had warned "the American people" that what they had seen so far were only the "initial skirmishes" of a war. Two days later, a devastating bomb at the Marriott Hotel in southern Jakarta killed at least 16 people and wounded about 150, most of them Indonesians, not Westerners. The International Islamic Front, or call it the al-Qaeda global franchising business, was just waiting for an opening. The Bush administrationâs logic in its "war against terror" is that security does not exist unless martial hygiene is fully imposed. What is "martial hygiene" Military showers? Security is arguably much tighter in the United States and Europe after September 11, 2001. But how do you secure a huge archipelago like Indonesia, spread out over the sea like a string of pearls for more than 5,000 kilometers? Answer: You dont defend. You attack. Pressure on the government of President Megawati Sukarnoputri is useless. Pressure to do what? And why is it useless? The United States cannot have it both ways. After faithful military servant Suharto had outlasted his usefulness, I seem to recall he fell after an economic crisis Washington said it wanted democracy in Indonesia - but with no resurgence of Islamist sentiment. But there are various degrees of Islam in Indonesia, from the tolerant, tropical, soft Southeast Asian version to the kick-out-the-foreigners-letâs-bring-the-caliphate-back brand of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI). Whats the point?that we cant accept moderate Islamist sentiment in Indon - obviously we can. Everybody for the moment seems to agree that Jemaah Islamiyah is behind the Jakarta bombing as it was behind the Bali bombing of last October 12. The timing of the Jakarta bombing may be related to the fact that this Thursday an Indonesian court is to deliver its verdict on Amrozi, the first person to go on trial over the Bali bombing. And the trial of Abu Bakar Bashir, the alleged leader of JI, is also due to reopen. But the most important fact is that Hambali, aka Riduan Isamuddin, is still on the loose. Hambali is the de facto, No 1 in JI. He is No 1 on Southeast Asiaâs most-wanted list. And he is also a senior al-Qaeda operative. The administration of US President George W Bush still has not understood that jihad - this worldwide anti-American jihad - is not an enterprise. Its broader than one enterprise, but tends to operate through a number of enterprises, many of which are linked. Jihad is based on individual commitment. It operates as a nebula. How does a nebula operate? It spreads like a virus. Al-Zawahiri sends a signal on tape and a cell somewhere with strike capability seizes an opportunity. They have to have money and training. We can stop that. And if they lose in enough places, that can change the AQ claim to success and divine favor, and thus can impact recruitment. Intelligence agencies repeat that dozens of plots have been foiled these past few months. But not all of them. This is news? Indonesia will always be a prime target - a fragile link in security terms, crammed with US interests. Crammed? In his tape, al-Zawahiri says something crucial: "We are saying to America one thing: What you saw with your eyes so far were only initial skirmishes, for the real battle hasnât even started yet. Therefore it is upon the American people whose armies have killed our women and children, if they care about their future and their future generations to come, to start relying on their mind and logic before it is too late to repent." How is this crucial? European intelligence sources in Brussels have told Asia Times Online that the US strategy in Iraq is something like a Spanish bullfight. By showing a red rag - in the form of an occupation force - the Bush administration expects to attract all manner of hard-to-find Islamist bulls. According to this logic, it would be easier for the Islamist bulls to attack American soldiers than to attack Americans around the world. The flypaper strategy. Ive seen it cited as defense for the otherwise stupid "bring em on" remark. Maybe its true. But its hardly the main strategic justification for going into Iraq. The problem is, the bulls are not playing the game. Thereâs no hard evidence up to now - and not a single arrest - of jihadis attacking the Americans in Iraq. Of course, as the occupation drags on thereâs a strong possibility of Afghan-trained jihadis increasingly relocating to Iraq. But the jihadi virus is global. It manifests itself in attacks in Africa one attack in the last 2 years, in porous Indonesia 2 attacks in the last 2 years, the first of which resulted in rolling up a large part of JI - this second attack doesnt look like its bringing down the Indon state, but turning it harder against JI, in the daily attacks in Afghanistan despite which, the central govts authority slowly grows. in the presumedcapacity of JI to strike sooner or later in Thailand, Malaysia or even fortress Singapore. Paul Wolfowitz and the Pentagon will have to revise their logic. Martial hygiene is not working. The Bush administrationâs first reaction to September 11 was to try to destroy al-Qaeda. But Osama bin Laden could not be captured. Ayman al-Zawahiri could not be captured. Mullah Omar, the Taliban leader, could not be captured. thats cause we havent dealt with pakistan yet. So the screenplay had to be changed, to Wolfowitzâs original idea: smash Saddam Hussein. Evil metamorphosed from Osama to Saddam. Saddam may be gone, but al-Qaeda remains, and on top of it the US now faces a national liberation struggle not according to most iraqis in Iraq that is led neither by remnants of the Baâath Party nor by al-Qaeda, but by Iraqi Sunnis and Shiâites alike. Then why is the Shiite region so quiet. And why are all the captured guerillas Baathists? And why are there tactics so militarily sophisticated? Only a long-term, carefully elaborated political strategy would be able to contain this worldwide anti-US jihad. Yes, thats true, but Iraq is part of that political strategy. Democratization and modernization. Which go hand in hand with the military strategy. Whatâs Pepeâs political strategy? Thereâs no possible military solution. You canât kill a virus with a barrage of TOW missiles. But you can kill the thugs who stop you from administering vaccines. And, according to al-Zawahiri, "The real battle hasnât even started yet."
Posted by: liberalhawk 2003-08-08 |
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