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Something to calculate before permitting Kosovo to become a nation.
Is Separatism Good For Russia

In general, Russia does not stand to gain from the international recognition of self-proclaimed post-Soviet countries. However, together with the world community it will have to search for new solutions to this problem. The world community has not recognized Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Transdnestr, and South Ossetia. They emerged immediately after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, and preserved their de facto independence over the past 15 years.

Their problem is becoming increasingly urgent, and not only because of the expected recognition of Kosovo, which, as some experts believe, can create a precedent in this respect. Although formally the world community does not recognize the presidential elections in South Ossetia and Transdnestr, and a constitutional referendum in Nagorno-Karabakh, they point to a clear invigoration of political life in these republics.

At the same time, metropolitan countries, primarily Georgia, are prone to retrieve the lost territories by force, which is bound to negatively affect the general situation in the area and Russian-Georgian relations. It seems that now the breakaway republics, these smallest fragments of the former Soviet Union, have approached the time of trial.

Posted by: 3dc 2007-01-10
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=177423