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Could Hugo grab the Dutch West Indies?
Rank speculation from Strategy Page, but heck, that's what Sundays are for.
Sure, why not? I saw a piece a few months ago speculating that Trinidad and Tobago were on Senor Commandante's short list.
If Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez made a grab for the Dutch West Indies (specifically the islands of Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire), could the Dutch really do anything about it? The Dutch military is no slouch, having performed peacekeeping missions in the Balkans and has served alongside the U.S. military in Iraq. However, these have been relatively small contingents of land forces as opposed to a major naval-air campaign, which reclaiming those Caribbean islands would entail (see the British effort to reclaim the Falklands in 1982).

The Royal Netherlands Navy is small, but has very good ships. This force carries a lengthy tradition going back centuries, a tradition that includes beating the British at sea many times. Their new De Zeven Provincien-class destroyers are good ships armed with SM-2MR and Evolved Sea Sparrow surface-to-air missiles and Harpoon anti-ship missiles. The eight Karel Doorman-class frigates are also very good vessels as well, armed with Sea Sparrows and Harpoons. There is also a landing platform dock amphibious vessel, the Rotterdam, with a second vessel, the Johan Van Witt, being built. The Royal Netherlands Air Force is also potent, but primarily designed for a war in Europe. It consists of 108 F-16As with a mid-life upgrade, making them very capable against aerial opponents. This is the bulk of their combat power. They have 30 AH-64D Longbow Apaches being delivered, and only three KDC-10F aerial refueling aircraft (comparable to the KC-10) for their entire force. This is a force that has a lot of teeth, but very little tail.

In the event that Venezuela should seize Aruba, Curacao, and/or Bonaire, Chavez will have a lot of places in Venezuela for his Air Force to reach the Dutch islands. The nearest Dutch territory is St. Marteen, which is anywhere from 844 (to Bonaire) to 965 (to Aruba) kilometers from the combat zone. The F-16's range is 2642 kilometers, but that figure is misleading. Combat eats up fuel very rapidly (often due to the use of afterburners), and as a result, the potential combat zone, even with aerial refueling, is at the edge of the F-16's combat radius (usually a third of the aircraft's range – in this case, 880 kilometers). Drop tanks could extend the range, but that means giving up some payload. This is a situation much like what the Luftwaffe faced in 1940 in the Battle of Britain, only this time, it would be an inability to provide sustained air cover for naval vessels as opposed to the inability to properly escort strike aircraft. As Admiral Sir Thomas Phillips, commander of Force Z (HMS Prince of Wales and Repulse), found out in 1941, a naval force sailing under hostile skies has an exciting and short life.
Posted by: Steve White 2007-03-11
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=182778