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Saudis shopping for a nuke?
Hat tip: Damian Penny, the pride of Corner Brook, Nfld. EFL
Recent developments in West Asia have led Saudi Arabia to embark on a strategic review that includes acquiring nuclear weapons, says The Guardian.
According to the British newspaper, âthis new threat of proliferation in one of the most dangerous regions of the world comes on top of a crisis over Iranâs alleged nuclear programme. A strategy paper being considered at the highest levels in Riyadh sets out three options: To acquire a nuclear capability as a deterrent; to maintain or enter into an alliance with an existing nuclear power that would offer protection, or to try to reach a regional agreement on having a nuclear-free Middle East.â Until now, the newspaper said, âthe assumption in Washington was that Saudi Arabia was content to remain under the US nuclear umbrella. But the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the US has steadily worsened since the September 11 attacks on New York and Washington:
I wonder why.
15 of the 19 attackers were Saudi.â
Oh, thatâs why.
While it is not known whether any decision has been taken on any of the three options, âthe fact that it is prepared to contemplate the nuclear option is a worrying development,â The Guardian said. Quoting UN and nuclear weapons analysts, the newspaper said the Saudi review reflected profound insecurities âgenerated by the volatility in the Middle East, Riyadhâs estrangement with Washington and the weakening of its reliance on the US nuclear umbrella.âSaudi Arabia is concerned over an Iranain nuclear weapons programme and the complete lack of international pressure on Israel, said to have 200 nuclear devices. It is also worried about a string of apparent leaks in American papers from the US administration critical of Saudi Arabia, said the daily.
To quote Ronald Reagan, "Facts are stubborn things."
It quoted David Albright, director of the Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington thinktank, as saying he doubted whether the Saudis would try to build a nuclear bomb, seeing as they donât have the smarts to do it, preferring instead to try to buy a nuclear warhead. They would be the first of the worldâs eight or nine nuclear powers to have bought rather than built the bomb. Four years ago, Saudi Arabia sent a defence team to Pakistan to tour its secret nuclear facilities and to be briefed by Abdul Qader Khan, the father of Pakistanâs nuclear bomb. A UN official said: "Thereâs obviously a lot of restlessness in the Middle East. Regional insecurity tends to produce a quest for a nuclear umbrella. The Saudis have the money and could provide it to Pakistan."
Unstated minor premise: the Pakistanis have the bomb and could provide it to the Saudis.
However, Albright said he doubted whether anyone would sell.
Wish I had his confidence in the basic goodness of mankind. If this is even possibly true, itâs yet another argument for regime change in Riyadh.
I think it's entirely likely it's true. A year ago, I didn't think it would happen — for practical reasons:The Saudi military isn't very large â there aren't enough Saudis to sustain a large force; the population is about 22.7 million, and of these 5.3 million are "expats." That makes it rather smaller than Iraq, which has almost the same population but without the foreign labor. Total military manpower is about 162,000, which includes 105,500 regulars. Despite being one of the world's largest weapons importers, they have not historically been military adventurers. It's easier, more efficient, and in the long run cheaper to work behind the scenes and through proxies. That's what leads me to believe they'll prefer to contract out any nuclear adventurism, and have someone else take the hit. Even though the Soddies have begun making what appear to be some serious efforts to get their domestic terrorism problem under control, the U.S. has ceased buying their polite fictions. There have been too many of them, and they've been too easily disproven. Another incident or two and they could find themselves openly on the poop list.
But I still think that for practical reasons they won't openly maintain their own nuclear force. Instead, I think they'll lease Pakistan, which has a dog-like devotion to the Soddy kingdom and to all things Arab. Official Pakistan wants to be the Arabs' good friend, selling them missiles. They're also training the Soddy army, despite the fact that they've never won a war. Qazi wants an Axis of Islam, starring Soddy money and Pak muscle, co-starring Iran, Malaysia and Indonesia, and they've made a step in that direction with the Supreme Council of Global Jihad, though that's admittedly an unofficial body. The Pak-Soddy alliance is one that will continue to strengthen, especially behind the scenes — the old secret protocols trick. And Pakland will be Soddy Arabia's nuclear guarantor. |
Posted by: Mike 2003-09-18 |
