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More on the Hezbollah-Israeli prisoner exchange...
From Debka...
The Hizballah list reportedly includes 19 Lebanese prisoners, 40 Palestinian and a group of other Arab captives for the three bodies, Tanenboim and a personal undertaking by Nasrallah to dig for information about the fate of Ron Arad. This fresh chance of a real trade has come about â not because the Hizballah leader has changed his spots overnight, but because he is being squeezed by circumstances beyond his control. DEBKAfileâs intelligence sources reveal that a major political upheaval is in progress in Lebanon that has seriously diminished the Shiite terrorist groupâs standing and bargaining capability.
| Here's the important part... |
It consists of two major events: 1. The United States is in mid-ploy for dislodging Syria from its positions of influence in Lebanon. The two Lebanese figures to watch are prime minister Rafiq Hariri and the former president Michel Aoun.
| This is kind of a long-term process, but it's been underway since before the smoke cleared after Sammy was gone... |
2. Heads of important Shiite hawzas in Lebanon, including Hizballahâs spiritual leader Sayed Mohd Hussein Fadlallah, have applied to depart Lebanon and relocate in the Iraqi Shiite holy towns of towns of Najaf and Karbala.| This part's true, too. Mullah Fudlullah's been trying to distance himself from Hezbollah for the past couple years, a process that's accelerated since we went into Iraq. Lebanon's an Islamic backwater â Najaf is the big turban for Shiite clerics... |
DEBKAfileâs sources stress that the Lebanese clerics, far from being put off by the unrest in Iraq, are anxious to be part of what they regard as an epic process taking place between the Iraqi Shiite majority and the United States. This process is of pivotal importance in the global war on terror and future US relations with Islam. They see Iraq as the center of gravity of this important process and do not want to be shunted aside with Nasrallah and his terrorist group while it is fermenting.
| Like I said â Lebanon's the sticks, Hezbollah's an idea whose time has gone. With Syria out, and Yasser dead, it's all downhill. Iraq's still chock full of possibilities... |
The fulfillment of these two processes â by-products of the Iraqi war â threatens to leave the Hizballah marooned in the Lebanese backwater without Syrian protection and minus the spiritual backbone that elevated the organization to its unique standing in the Shiite world. Nasrallah senses his comedown is near and knows he is left with two hard choices: Either launch a ferocious military-cum-terror assault on Israel â in defiance of the prohibition from the Syrian and Iranian rulers (âHelp the Palestinians, but only from a distance,â he has been told by Tehran.); or jump aboard the US-backed bandwagon rushing to take over in Beirut. To do this, he must first disencumber himself of the Israeli prisoner issue which has become an impediment
| Hopping aboard the U.S. bandwagon implies doing a 180. Plus there's the little matter of 251 dead Marines. Unleashing the terror war gets a conventional response, with piles of corpses. The IDF's passed the tipping point on taking out the head cheeses in terror organizations, so Nasrallah's neck's on the line if they go that way... |
Therefore, while the Israeli media cling to their habitual manner of presenting Nasrallah as holding the high ground on the prisoner issue, the truth is that the trump cards have landed in Israelâs hands â if only its leaders are canny enough to play them to advantage.
| I agree with Debka's analysis on this. Someone ought to send it to Ted Kennedy. We wouldn't be at this point if we hadn't gone into Iraq, and the changes that have been wrought since April have been pretty significant. Five months from now Lebanon's going to look even more different... |
Posted by: Fred Pruitt 2003-09-24 |
