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The political storm for Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza is not yet over
Egyptian analysis of the Palestinian civil war. Excerpt:

Whether the newly-formed Palestinian government in Ramallah will be able to function efficiently and fulfill its obligations and responsibilities according to a political agenda, even if it has one, remains to be seen.

Due to the speed with which the new government was established, it has been dubbed a "knee-jerk" government by some. This followed Hamas' dramatic take-over of Gaza. The fledgeling government has already gained regional and international support and recognition, with the US, EU and Israel all pledging to lift the economic embargo imposed on the Palestinians following Hamas' election victory in 2006.

However, recognition and foreign aid alone won't guarantee success. Salam Fayyad, the Ramallah-based Prime Minister has described his government's mission as "very hard but not impossible." This is a more or less accurate prognosis. Fayyad, a former World Bank official, is a favourite of the US and EU (but not necessarily Israel).

He is not a member of Fatah and doesn't have a power base or a strong following in the Palestinian street. Hence, his ability to effect real change on the ground is very limited. Indeed, the success or failure of the new government, e.g. in maintaining security and reestablishing the rule of law, depends to a very large degree on the extent to which the Fatah movement, the backbone of the PA political and security apparatus in the West Bank, will be willing to cooperate and abide by its decisions.

Unfortunately, experience shows that Fatah, particularly its largely undisciplined and numerous militias and gangs, has a record of refusing to acknowledge the authority of previous Palestinian governments whether in Ramallah or in Gaza. The organisation may prove to be even more at odds with a government led by a "Western-oriented' prime minister who believes that all militia men and security agencies ought to be answerable to his office.


Posted by: lotp 2007-06-27
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=191805