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The Iraq Data Debate: Civilian Casualties from 2006 to 2007
Dingy Hairy Ried and Dennis Kotexinich Estimate an average of 18,000 civilian deaths per month since 2003 invasion. (1 million civilian deaths) You can hear Bob Ucher saying "Juuust a little outside!"Iraq data are inherently messy and all empirical claims need to be treated with caution. But two broad points seem clear nonetheless. First, sectarian cleansing is an important factor in Iraq s violence, but it is hard to know how important it has been relative to the surge in reducing civilian casualties. No claim for the relative importance of the surge and cleansing for Iraqi civilian casualties can be sustained from available data. Second, MNF-I is not alone in finding a reduction in civilian deaths since 2006. Multiple, independent sources find similar trends, and there is very little evidence to suggest any upward trend in violence in 2007. Given this, the Petraeus testimony is not inaccurate or uncorroborated in the way many have claimed. But neither is it complete: while the testimony does not explicitly attribute the casualty reduction to the surge as opposed to sectarian cleansing or other causes, its weight of emphasis implies a primary role for the surge. A more complete assessment would have addressed potential alternative causes explicitly, and would have clarified the limitations on what can be known about the surges effects. See Graphs at Link Posted by: GolfBravoUSMC 2007-09-26 |
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