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Lebanon is coming
No one appears to be keeping a close eye on events in Lebanon except for us here at Rantburg and maybe Israel. I say "maybe" because the Olmert government is currently wrapped up in the stately polonnaise leading up to the Annapolis conference, which even if it results in agreements is going to be torpedoed by Hamas.  Lebanon, meanwhile, is in the midst of the 21st century equivalent of Archduke Ferdinand's grand tour through the Balkans, with the part of Gavrilo Princip being played by Hassan Nasrallah. Syria's playing Austria-Hungary, and may meet the same fate, and Iran is playing the part of Germany under Kaiser Bill. None of the American pols seem to be aware this one is coming, and the consequences have the potential to be devastating for large portions of the world.The current issue of the Kuwaiti paper al-Seyassah carries the story on Hezbollah's new "militia" of 50,000 hard boyz who're being prepared to depose the government of Fuad Siniora and the March 14th Movement. Yesterday, apparently reacting to the same information, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt accused the Persian puppets of intending to occupy Beirut. There's probably a certain amount of truth to the story. Certainly it fits with Hezbollah's parallel communications system and the stories that they're building new roads to connect their strong points.  Hezbollah has been encamped in downtown Beirut since last December, with the expressed intention of forcing the March 14th government from office. The current government crisis was initiated when Hezbollah pulled its ministers from the government, at which point Emile Lahoud, the Syrian-imposed president, pronounced Siniora's government illegitimate. The root of the crisis is the attempt to perpetuate Syrian hegemony over Lebanon. It's the Arab way or the highway, to paraphrase Bashir Assad's interview with the Tunisian daily al-Shuruk published last Thursday. Closely tied to the Syrians' concern with regaining their colony is Hezbollah's determination to retain its guns. Resolution 1559 demands that all militias in Lebanon disarm. The Hezbullies deny they're a "militia," instead calling themselves the "resistance" and piously proclaiming up until the present instance that they're there to fight the hated Zionists and that they'll never shed Lebanese blood. Resolution 1701 basically adds "this means you!" to the original resolution. Since the Hariri assassination Hezbollah has become less and less convincing in their pretence to be loyal Lebanese and not Iranian proxies, even starting a war without so much as a by-your-leave from the government. Jumblatt has described them as a branch of the IRGC. That particular mask has either slipped or been discarded.  So what unlikely chain of events will bring about a situation that holds the potential to be just as horrible as the aftermath of Archduke Ferdinand's grand tour? Try this: Lebanon was due to elect a new president last month. This is done by the parliament, not by direct election, and it's subject to a number of rules and customs, one being that the president will be a Christian and another being that on the first go he has to receive two thirds of the vote. Parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri called the parliament into session and the two thirds vote wasn't there. That means that parliament has to be called into new session, currently scheduled for October 23rd. In that session only a majority is required to elect the president, which March 14th has promised to do, whether they meet in the parliament building or in Jumblatt's living room. Lahoud has threatened to turn the government over to the military, which is of course unconstitutional, because he describes the Siniora government as unconstitutional. This raises the specter of two competing governments within the country, one of them allied with Syria and the other unarmed. This could be thought of as the Syrian option.  The Persian option is the 50,000-man militia route. Given its absolute lack of even the rudimentary subtlety the Syrians are capable of, we're guessing it originated in Teheran, possibly with Ahmedinejad himself. If it flies -- and it probably will if the Syrians are unable to assassinate enough politicians in the next nine days to eliminate the March 14th majority -- then at some point before October 23rd Hezbollah will stage its putsch. Parliament will be occupied, transportation routes will be cut, and elements of the military command will be replaced. A "provisional government" will be set up, with the same old odious Syrian puppets in charge, probably with Michel Aoun as president, and the new Leb government will express its undying admiration for all things Syrian and Persian. Iran and Syria will be left to squabble over who gets the tribute. The Syrians will quietly begin moving their "intelligence" hard boyz back into the country. The new government will petition the UN to disband the Hariri tribunal and the Russians or the Chinese or both will back the request. Jumblatt, Saad Hariri, and any surviving Gemayels will meet with unfortunate accidents if they can't make it to Paris.That's the scenario that will take place if everything goes right. If it doesn't, Lebanon's civil war could fire up again -- though at this point it looks like the "resistance" is the only party ready for it. Regardless of the internal actions, the civilized world will be faced with a case of conquest analogous to Iraq's takeover of Kuwait. The quandary will be that if we, the civilized world, decided to try and make the Hezbollah dog cough up the bone of Lebanon it could well be over Syria's and the ayatollahs' dead bodies, along with those of many of their countrymen. That's not surprising -- we've seen it coming for years, and at times it's looked closer than it does now. The real surprise is that we could see the balloon go up within the next 30 days. Watch for it. Posted by: Fred 2007-10-14 |
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