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North Korea about to go under?
WorlswideStandard.comIntelligence sources and other observers both here in the capital of the PRC and elsewhere in Asia are stating that they project a possible collapse of the North Korean regime within six months time. Although there have been similar dire predictions made in the past, those analyzing the current situation point to several factors that indicate that the regime may finally be unraveling. Recent activity by both Kim Jong-Il and other DPRK officials suggest that the Dear Leader is in the process of moving around the financial resources of Pyongyangs international banking empire in order to make sure he is taken care of should he have to go into exile. This includes a recent visit to the United States by North Korean finance officials who were visiting to learn about the international financial circulation network. Ostensibly, this visit was preparatory work that would allow the country to re-join the international financial system. . . . But, there are others who suggest that this is also part of a contingency plan in order to make Kims assets portable. While the Dear Leader is engaged in financial matters, other reports state that there are movements of U.S. and South Korean military units and equipment to the DMZ in what appears to be a pre-positioning exercise in anticipation of some internal upheavals in the north. Indications that the regime is possibly losing its grip and that Kim may be failing to maintain control over events are seen in what happens both inside--and how people are managing to get outside of--the country. A recent article in the Washington Post details how it has become far easier and more common for North Koreas to find ways of getting out of their country. How much money you have determines how arduous and circuitous your escape route might be. The key factor to watch is how rapidly the numbers of people fleeing are increasing. Only 41 North Koreans were able to reach the South in 1995, but the rate of those escaping has grown each year and last year it reached 2,000. What makes these multiple escape routes out of the country possible is that there are a growing number of DPRK border guards and secret police officials who are willing to take bribes to allow their fellow countrymen to escape. North Korea watchers regard this as a telltale sign of the regime losing its control. Part of the motivation for these border control officials desire to collect bribes is that the centrally-controlled economy has ceased to function and the food distribution system is nearly as broken. But, the other side of the coin, they say, is that those accepting these under-the-table payments do not fear the punishment of higher-ranking authorities as much as they once did. . . . Instapundit comments: I hope so, but I've been hearing that for a while. Eventually it'll be true -- but two things we know about totalitarian regimes are that they tend to hang on longer than they should, but that when they go it's often with astonishing suddenness. Posted by: Mike 2007-11-27 |
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