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Paleos will get poorer if roadblocks remain: World Bank
 JERUSALEM, West Bank The World Bank on Thursday endorsed a Palestinian reform plan that requires $5.6 billion in international aid over three years, but warned that the money will not stem economic decline in the West Bank and Gaza unless Israel also eases Palestinian movement and trade.
The Palestinians plan to ask for the aid at a conference of donor countries next week in Paris. The World Bank said the plan is a process around which the Palestinian Authority, Israel and the donor community can coalesce.
| Except for the fact that it's giving money to a band of crazed killers ... |
However, if Israels closures remain in place, these large sums would at best slow a downward cycle of crisis and dependence, the report said.
| And the cycle of violence, don't forget that ... |
By contrast, a considerable easing of Israeli restrictions and subsequent recovery of the Palestinian private sector could lead to double-digit economic growth, the World Bank said.
| It would also help if Achmed and Mahmoud would quit posing for gun sex with their AKs and get jobs doing something useful ... |
Israeli defence officials have been reluctant to remove roadblocks and barriers, first set up after the outbreak of Israeli-Palestinian fighting in 2000 to keep attackers from Israel. Security officials say the moderate West Bank government of ineffectual Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is still too weak to rein in militants effectively.
| Since Hamas and Fatah are just two sides of the same coin, of course Abbas isn't going to rein in the 'militants' ... |
In the development plan, the Palestinian government pledges to cut government spending and reform institutions.
| That pledge will end up right next to all their other pledges ... |
About 70 percent of the aid would initially go to budget support ...
| ... which means for all the 'civil servants' right down to Mahmoud's third cousins, twice removed ... |
... and 30 percent to development projects, such as boosting tourism.
| Oh yes, visit enchanting Paleoland indeed ... |
The balance would shift more and more toward development as the Palestinian government recovers.
| With more and more money going to guns and ammo ... |
The plan predicts an annual economic growth of about 5 percent, provided that Israel gradually eases its restrictions on travel and trade. The Palestinian population grows by almost 4 percent a year, and such modest economic growth would initially have little effect on per capita income.
| And again, whatever spare cash laying around is going to be used for ammo, not for economic development. |
 The World Bank said that Palestinian reforms alone would not reverse economic decline. They must be fully supported by both the large increase in aid and the relaxation of the (Israeli) closure regime ..., the bank wrote.
If donors pledge the full amount requested, but Israeli restrictions remain in place, the Palestinian economy would keep shrinking by about 2 percent a year, it wrote.
| Which means they haven't hit bottom yet. |
In the worst scenario less than full donor support and continued Israeli restrictions growth will fall sharply and the already growing poverty levels will rise dramatically, the report said.
By contrast, if there is full donor support and considerable easing of movement, it revive the private sector and drive growth rates to even double-digit levels, the bank said.
Israeli legislator Ephraim Sneh, a former deputy defence minister, said the responsibility for possible failure shouldnt just be placed on Israel. Israel should assist the actions of the donors, to reconstruct the Palestinian economy. The issue of movement is important, but you cant put all the onus of failure on this issue, he said.
| How about making the Paleos responsible for their behavior? Radical thought, I agree, but it's never been tried before. |
Sneh cited the West Bank city of Nablus, once a stronghold of militants. The Abbas government has tried in recent months to take control of West Bank towns and to rein in militants, focusing on Nablus. The Palestinian security forces say theyve made progress in Nablus. However, Sneh said its premature to remove the checkpoints ringing Nablus, arguing that the city is a laboratory of suicide bombers.
The roadblocks are making it increasingly difficult for manufacturers to ship goods, even within the West Bank. The West Bank and Gaza are cut off from each other, and Gaza has been largely isolated since June when Hamas seized control by force, and Israel and Egypt responded by virtually halting border traffic.
| Notice that the Egyptians are getting none of the blame for their border closings ... |
Ninety-five percent of Palestinian trade is with Israel, the bank noted, but shipping goods from the West Bank has become more difficult with the building of Israels separation barrier in the West Bank.
Ron Pundak, head of Israels Peres Centre for Peace, said the donors should be cautious, making sure the Palestinians carry out promised reforms and that Israel eases restrictions. Otherwise, if you are investing in a factory or an agricultural centre and the goods cannot move from one place to another, its a waste of money, he said.
Posted by: Steve White 2007-12-14 |
