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Pakistan must seek a route from dynasty to unity
By Anatol LievenTo understand the implications of Benazir Bhuttos assassination for Pakistan, first imagine what that country would look like without her Pakistan Peoples party. It has been overwhelmingly a dynastic party and she was the last politically viable representative of the Bhutto dynasty. Without her to hold it together, it is highly probable the PPP will disintegrate. In the short term, this is likely to benefit President Pervez Musharraf and the army but, in the longer term, Islamist extremists may have the most to gain. If the PPP does fragment, the ability of the army to use patronage to put together coalition governments including some of these PPP fragments will be greatly increased. General Musharraf will also most probably gain more freedom of manoeuvre vis a vis Washington. American pressure on him will be diminished, for the US no longer has a strong pro-American civilian leader to promote in his place. At a time when the US is becoming increasingly exasperated with Gen Musharrafs administration and Democratic leaders such as Barack Obama have been making openly menacing speeches US options have become radically limited. Breaking with Gen Musharraf now means breaking with Pakistan as a whole, with potentially disastrous consequences for the war on terror and the conflict in Afghanistan. Posted by: john frum 2007-12-28 |
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