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Kosovo is key as hardliner wins first leg of Serb poll
Much inside baseball here.
An extreme nationalist won the first leg of Serbia's presidential election last night, raising the prospect of international isolation and increasing the chances of more Balkan conflict over the looming declaration of independence by Kosovo.

With the Albanian leadership of the breakaway southern province due to declare independence within weeks, the loss of the region that Serbian nationalists view as sacrosanct territory appeared to help Tomislav Nikolic, of the extremist Serbian Radical party, to a four-point victory over the incumbent, the pro-western moderate, President Boris Tadic.

According to exit polls and early results last night in Belgrade, Nikolic took more than 39% of the vote to Tadic's 35% in a crucial ballot that could determine whether Serbia turns east, into Russia's offered embrace, or west, towards European integration.

Neither contender, however, scored an outright victory, requiring an absolute majority of the vote. The other seven candidates were eliminated from the race, leaving Nikolic and Tadic to contest a run-off on February 3. Nikolic, an extreme nationalist who fought as a paramilitary in the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s and served under the late president Slobodan Milosevic, could yet be beaten, since many of the votes last night, on a high turnout of more than 60%, were cast for pro-western democrats. His support, however, is more easily mobilised and he could well secure victory in two weeks. A win for Nikolic and the Radicals, whose party leader, Vojislav Seselj, is currently being tried for war crimes at the tribunal in The Hague, would be viewed as a disaster in western Europe and a severe setback to EU policy in the Balkans.
The EU has a policy for the Balkans?
In an attempt to boost Tadic's chances, Brussels announced last week that it was opening talks on visa-free travel to Europe for Serbs. Several EU countries also want to sign a pre-membership deal with Belgrade before the end of the month in order to help Tadic to a second-round victory. But some EU states are strongly opposed to this, demanding that key Serbian war crimes suspects be arrested and extradited to The Hague as a condition for the EU deal.

David Miliband, the foreign secretary, met his counterparts from France, Germany and Italy at the weekend in Slovenia to work out how and when to recognise Kosovo's independence. The Kosovan prime minister, Hashem Thaci, is due in Brussels this week to coordinate his policies with the EU. Thaci has been leaned on to delay an independence declaration until after the Serbian election. The declaration is expected within six weeks.

Serbia's key ally, Russia's Vladimir Putin, went to the Balkans last Friday to announce that any unilateral declaration of independence would be "illegal and immoral".

The outcome of Serbia's presidential run-off could hinge on how the Serbian prime minister, Vojislav Kostunica, advises his supporters to vote. Kostunica is fiercely nationalistic, engaged in a permanent power struggle with Tadic, and unbending on the Kosovo dispute. Tadic could need the votes of the prime minister's supporters to defeat Nikolic.
Posted by: Steve White 2008-01-21
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=220488