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Experts: Saddam holds on to ego
For a man whose name in Arabic means "he who confronts," Saddam Hussein went meekly into captivity. His failure to commit suicide the way Adolf Hitler did or to go down fighting U.S. soldiers the way his two sons did in July surprised many observers, who thought Saddam would fear humiliation more than the grave.But Iraq experts and political psychologists who have studied the fallen strongmanâs psyche say Saddam acted both out of a raw desire to survive and because he believes he can still influence his country and the Arab world. "He didnât put up a fight because he was trapped, and in his own mind, heâs too important to die," says Stanley Renshon, a professor of political science and psychology at the City University of New York. Like the ousted Yugoslav dictator Slobodan Milosevic, Renshon says, Saddam sees himself as a major historical figure. He refused entreaties from other Arab leaders in the spring to avert war by leaving Iraq and accepting exile. He appears to have believed the invasion would never occur, or that if it did, he could win or survive. Though he lost the Persian Gulf War in 1991, he portrayed that as a victory because U.S.-led forces stopped short of Baghdad and his regime survived. Now he may hope that an insurgency against the U.S. occupation will succeed. Though itâs hard to imagine Iraqis would ever clamor for his return, he retains support among the Arab Sunni Muslim minority that benefited during his long rule. Amatzia Baram, an Iraq expert and senior fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace, says Saddam may expect that his supporters will kidnap U.S. soldiers or foreign hostages and try to trade them for his freedom. Alternatively, Saddam may hope to vindicate himself at a trial like the one in the Netherlands where for the past two years, Milosevic has defiantly defended his brutal record in the Balkans. Unless weapons searchers are successful, Saddam will surely argue that he never had the chemical or biological weapons his invaders claimed were there. And a trial could be an opportunity for Saddam to cast himself as a champion of the Palestinian cause, an Arab nationalist who defied the United States. "Iâm sure he feels he can get a lot of mileage raising these slogans and banners," Baram says. "He still believes in these ideals and thinks he can rouse the Arab street." Saddamâs behavior in captivity so far is instructive. Initially disoriented and docile, he submitted to a humiliating physical examination but quickly began to recover. "Heâs going to revive under our care and feeding," says Phebe Marr, an American historian of Iraq. "He probably will try to bargain. Heâs a rational person and wants to save his life." Two former U.S. military intelligence interrogators say Saddam probably is in a windowless room, under constant surveillance and uncertain whether itâs day or night. If his questioners decide to insult him, they might send a woman to interrogate him. If they want to create rapport between him and his captors, they might have an older, respectful man lead the questioning... Posted by: OMER ISHMAIL 2003-12-17 |
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