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UN expected to intervene in Iraqi poll row
EFL:
The United Nations is likely to send a mission to Iraq to help resolve demands by Shiites for immediate direct elections in response to a request by Iraqi leaders and the United States.
Before you go off the handle, remember, "immediate" and "UN" are mutually exclusive terms.
UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan said yesterday further discussions were necessary before he could make a decision to dispatch the team. UN officials said a four-member security unit, about to go to Iraq, would have to report back first.
Sticking their heads up, seeing if anybody takes another wack at them.
But diplomats expected a positive response, saying the decision had been made in principle after Annan met for several hours with members of the Iraqi Governing Council, the US administrator in Iraq, Paul Bremer, and his British counterpart, Sir Jeremy Greenstock.
Kofi really wants back in the game.
At issue is a demand from Iraq’s most revered Shiite cleric, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, for direct elections immediately for a provisional government.
Because his people would vote as a bloc, he thinks Shiite candidates would win. He’s most likely right.
The US-led occupation, known as the Coalition Provisional Authority, has called for a new national assembly to be established through a complicated caucus procedure before a temporary government can take office on June 30.
Think Iowa, with explosives.
After that Iraqis are to write a constitution and plan elections for a permanent government by the end of 2005. "I have indicated that I don’t believe there may be enough time between now and May to hold elections," Annan told a news conference after several hours of meetings with Iraqi leaders and the US-led occupation authorities. "But the team will go down and look into that further and then report to me," Annan said.
Being the UN, that could take some time. And time is on our side.
Being the U.N., the report on the feasibility of elections in May should be in sometime around the end of August...
A Sistani ally said that if the United Nations sent a mission, its findings would be accepted by the Shiite leader. "Some in Iraq say elections are not possible so he (Sistani) is demanding a neutral group to decide if elections are possible or not," said Abdul Aziz al-Hakim. "Then this conclusion will be respected by Mr. Sistani," Hakim told reporters.
Unless his side loses, at which point the seething will begin again. But, it will be against a UN decision instead of the US. That’s important internationally and politically.
I think Sistani will accept it. Moqtada won't, but Sistani will...
Annan has said repeatedly Iraq was too dangerous since he ordered out international staff in October, following two attacks on UN offices and humanitarian organisations in Baghdad. But the secretary-general said on Monday there was "widespread agreement" at the meeting for the UN to play a role once an Iraqi interim government was in place on June 30. "The issue now is whether the technical, political or security conditions exist for general direct elections to take place as early as May this year," he said.
I don’t think even Kofi believes that. Kofi will appoint a team, they’ll talk to everyone, consult the neighboring states, consult the EU, etc, etc. Then write a report, May will be long gone by that time.
Posted by: Steve 2004-01-20
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=24711