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Gustav Is Coming!
Gustav will be traversing warm waters and will have favorable conditions for strengthening. Its therefore appears likely Gustav will become a major hurricane. The NHC agrees: MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT GUSTAV WILL BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN A FEW DAYS. And, I would add, in the Gulf of Mexico a couple of days after that.such a forecast trend raises alarm bells vis a vis New Orleans, not necessarily because its the most likely target (again, its way too early to know that), but because the Big Easy remains by far the most vulnerable American city to a direct hit from a major hurricane which, I remind you, Hurricane Katrina was not; Katrina made landfall well east of New Orleans as a weakening storm, and was by no means the worst-case scenario. Bottom line, if I lived in New Orleans, and I didnt own a car, I would start asking around among my friends who do own cars: Are you going to be around this holiday weekend? If theres an evacuation, can I have a ride? Just in case. People are buzzing about Gustav because it seems to have the best chance of any tropical system since the record 2005 Atlantic hurricane seasons Katrina, Rita and Wilma to traverse the central Gulf of Mexico, where the loop current stands ready to aid in the rapid intensification of a hurricane. A glance at the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential map shows that, if it follows the expected track, Gustav will be traversing some of the most explosively warm waters in the entire ocean: If GFDL or NGPS models are right, don't look for me here Monday. Posted by: Glenmore 2008-08-26 |
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