|
Georgia Crisis Plays to Iran's Advantage - For Now
Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad has been unusually cautious in reacting to Russias battle with the west over Georgia. Unlike his Syrian counterpart, who had lavished praise on Moscow and justified its military intervention, the Iranian president last week went only as far as to criticise obliquely those who were lambasting Russia.Countries that do not belong to a region do not interfere with the countries of that region, he declared at the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation summit. It is to Irans advantage to stay on the sidelines as a new geopolitical game unfolds, and Tehran tries to figure out its place in it. True, Tehran stands to benefit as Russia raises the price of its co-operation with other United Nations Security Council members on curbing the Iranian nuclear programme. But it is not unthinkable that Moscow would eventually try to buy its way out of the European crisis by offering more forceful help on Iran. In the short term, trouble in another part of the world is surely good news for Mr Ahmadi-Nejad. It buys his scientists time to keep those centrifuges spinning and mastering nuclear technology. And it fits perfectly with the Iranian strategy of delaying the nuclear crisis at least until the next US president takes over. The Iran nuclear dispute has disappeared from the headlines only a few weeks after it seemed to be coming to a head. This summer world powers, including Russia, renewed an offer of economic and political incentives to Tehran to persuade it to halt its uranium enrichment programme. Iran reacted by dragging its feet. People close to the regime whispered to all who were willing to listen that Iran was interested in the packages sweetener. Under the European offer, Iran could, as a first step, freeze only the expansion of uranium enrichment activities and the UN would stop its pursuit of more sanctions. When speculation was mounting that Israel could launch military strikes against Irans nuclear facilities thanks to apparent American opposition, the speculation has since subsided the US agreed, for the first time, for a senior US official to take part in face-to-face talks with an Iranian negotiator. Iran, however, celebrated the concession and offered nothing in return. Instead of an expected Yes or Maybe at the Geneva talks, diplomats received an Iranian counter offer of endless talks about talks. Irans attitude frustrated all participants, including the Russians, and raised the prospect of a more determined international front against Iran. Moscow, however, was still uneasy about imposing a fresh round of UN sanctions. Now, with the US and western European governments condemning Russia for intervening in Georgia and recognising the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, its resistance will harden. But it is too early to assume that, if the world faces a resurgent and more aggressive Russia, Iran will be off the hook. For one thing, the crisis could encourage the European Union to follow the US example and impose a further raft of unilateral sanctions against Tehran. Moscows aim, moreover, appears to be to assert itself near its borders, not necessarily to provoke a wider global conflict. And while its relations with Iran have been friendly, Moscow fears an Iranian nuclear bomb as much as, if not more than, the US. Russias history of intervention in Persia, meanwhile, leaves Iranians wary of its intentions. Vladimir Putin, Russias prime minister and former president, hinted last week that co-operation over Iran hinged on the wests talking to Russia about its own concerns. But he also made clear that Russia had backed three UN sanctions resolutions on Iran because it was in its own national interests. Iranians can rejoice for now at the erupting tensions in Europe. But it is doubtful that they will be counting on Russia to get them out of the nuclear dispute. Posted by: Pappy 2008-09-02 |
| http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=248850 |