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Excluding the U.S. from the Caucasus
It was all over the press last week. At a time when the conflict in the Caucasus reached an alarming level, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called Foreign Minister Ali Babacan. Come Ali we are going to Moscow, he said. They both got on the plane. At the end of a brainstorming that lasted during the three hour flight they landed in Moscow with the Caucasus cooperation and stability platform. And the Foreign Ministry's bureaucracy learned about it from the press.Although those who are fond of conspiracy theories won't like to hear it, sometimes, there are simple explanations to specific state behaviors. Criticized by the press at the at the early days of the conflict for being on vacation and doing nothing to defuse the tension it appears that the members of government came up with this Caucasus platform in order to calm down the press by giving the impression that they are doing something concrete. Thank God (or in fact tanks to Washington) the Georgians started to drag their feet which will hopefully provide the opportunity for the government to think more (than three hours) about whether the platform which covers Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Russia and Armenia is a good idea. Turkey's policy under scrutiny Recently Turkey's Caucasus policy came under scrutiny at a security conference in Istanbul organized by the Arı Group. Most of the panelists argued that Russia's invasion of Georgia was intended actually to strike a blow to the east west energy corridor. Richard Giragosyan, an American Armenian who has been living in Yerevan for the past two years said with its new initiative Turkey took the frozen problems of the region from the US agenda, and put it to the Russian agenda. No wonder how the Russians have jumped on the idea whereas the Americans tried to kill it through Tbilisi. What is so obvious to a group of experts is not so obvious to the Turkish government. It appears that no one thought about the implications of giving leverage to the Russians on both Turkish Armenian rapprochement and the problem or Nagorno Karabagh through the Caucasus platform. Obviously it will be unthinkable for Russia which is deeply engaged in Armenia not to play a role in the diplomatic processes involving Armenians. But this is the gist of the problem. In a regional platform Russia will undoubtedly make all the others play to its tune, and it will be impossible for Turkey to counterbalance Moscow. If Turkey wants a solution to Nagorno Karabagh and improve its relations with Yerevan it will need the backing of the United States as well as the European Union which has leverage over Armenia. Only these two power centers can counterbalance the influence of the Russians in Armenia. The argument behind the Turkish proposal that regional problems should be solved by the regional players not outside powers, can only be valid if your regional interlocutors have good will and a spirit of cooperation, a mentality which seems absent in today's Russia. In contrast to the Turkish foreign policy which seeks stability in the Caucasus, Russia derives its strength and influence in the region from the existence of instability. It is thanks to that policy that today it offers the Azerbaijani government a solution on Nagorno Karabagh in exchange for its energy sources. I had heard previously an Azerbaijani official talking about this proposal but was unable to confirm it. Last week a Russian newspaper ran a report on the offer made to Azerbaijan on similar lines. Considering the current Russian mentality, this should not come as a surprise. Speaking at the Arı conference Sergei Markov, an advisor to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin was very clear about the Russian position. If the energy pipelines passes from our territory we support it. If it does not we don't support it, he said with a tone in his voice as if asking what's wrong with that. One can hardly call this a spirit of cooperation based on mutual interest. Unfortunately the brain storming of Erdoğan and Babacan on a three hour flight to Moscow seems to have ended with the naive belief that Turkey can handle that kind of mentality alone. Posted by: mrp 2008-09-23 |
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