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Ending the Credit Crunch: Four Benchmarks to Watch
The credit crunch has been with us for more than a year. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) started cutting rates on Sept. 18, 2007, and fiscal stimulus provided a boost to second- and third-quarter gross domestic product, yet there are few signs that the combined efforts of the U.S. Fed and Treasury are making headway at putting the credit crunch to rest.Financial market participants are still waiting for clear signs that monetary and fiscal policy stimuli have established an environment where the U.S. economy can grow its way out of its housing and credit problems. Furthermore, there are scant signs that the stimuli now in place will enable the economy to avoid a recession that would further complicate the dynamics of credit crunch and contagion. What handful of key economic and market variables can be tracked over the next 6 to 12 months to best help us gauge whether or not U.S. policymakers are winning the war against the credit crunch? Standard & Poor's Market, Credit and Risk Strategies (MCRS) has created a short checklist of economic and market variables and identified the general developments to track. We will continue to monitor and report on these crucial metrics in the months to come: 1. Real estate values -- must stabilize or edge higher 2. The rate of existing and new home sales -- must rebound 3. Credit conditions -- must ease up substantially 4. Crude oil prices -- must continue to decline, and then stabilize How are things tracking now? 1. Real estate values: encouraging 2. The rate of existing and new home sales: less encouraging 3. Credit conditions: discouraging 4. Crude oil prices -- encouraging Some positive signs; some negative signs. So what if the bailout plan collapsed because of voter outrage? What's the hurry in ramming this plan through Congress? It took awhile to get to this "financial emergency? Posted by: JohnQC 2008-09-27 |
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