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A World Beyond Political Deadlock
You could have won a lot of money this year betting that the winning presidential candidate would carry more than 300 electoral votes. Most everyone expected a narrow contest this year because that is what we have become accustomed to. George W. Bush won his elections by sliding in just over the 270 electoral vote mark required for a win: 286 to 251 in 2004 and 271 to 266 in 2000.The political orthodoxy has held that we live in evenly divided nation in which a handful of swing voters in a few states hold sway over the nation. We bemoaned the tyranny of the undecided Ohio voter. This was supposed to be the next episode in the saga of our deeply divided nation. There were many predicting that an electoral deadlock was possible, with Nancy Pelosi establishing the new administration with the swing of her gavel. But most pundits, myself included, agreed that we would see something very much like 2004, or at least 1976 when Jimmy Carter edged Gerald Ford 297 to 240. Now, a clear-eyed examination of the electoral map shows us that Barack Obama is headed for a 313 to 221 victory over John McCain, and maybe much more. More frustrating for political scribes is that unlike other prospective big wins, this one does not feel at all concrete. If Obama could snatch the lead back from McCain a month ago and run up a lead of six or seven points in that time, it's not unimaginable that we could see the race whipsaw yet again. A historically large number of uncertain, unsatisfied voters who are not strongly committed to either candidate could certainly still make another leap. The tyranny of the fickle has replaced the tyranny of the undecided. It's understandable that we'd crave predictability in politics. The version of the world presented on cable news and the Internet casts each political showdown -- whether it's a real battle over how to cool the financial meltdown that politicians themselves cooked up or a run-of-the-mill transportation bill -- as a looming Apocalypse. With so much at stake, it was comforting, if a little dispiriting, to think that the order of things was unchangeable in this 51 percent nation. But the breathless, screechy tone of our discourse has made it hard to recognize real change moments when they present themselves. This election features the oldest first-time nominee to ever run and the first minority nominee. It is also taking place while U.S. forces are at war in two counties and malefactors in Moscow, Tehran, Beijing, Caracas, and the caves of the Hindu Kush are looking for chances to exploit our stretched status. Meanwhile, the economy is undergoing a major reordering as the biggest, most selfish generation in American history is starting to retire. The Baby Boomers may have been upset about Laos and Cambodia 40 years ago, but we hadn't seen anything until they had to watch their IRAs get fricasseed three weeks before an election. By selling an opaque vision of change and relentlessly tying John McCain to the status quo, Obama was perfectly situated to take advantage of the terrain. It had been favorable ground for any Democrat before, but Obama was slowed by his exotic background and scant experience. At the same time, McCain's bipartisan record, biography, and unpredictable style had kept him well ahead of the typical Republican. As the members of President Bush's ownership society grew worried that they had bought swamp land instead of a share of steady markets, though, all of the reagents that limited Obama's success were taken out of the formula. Also removed was the notion of national deadlock that has so fascinated us since Al Gore got nipped in 2000. In this new environment, large, lasting changes are looming. Could Barack Obama do for liberals what Ronald Reagan did for conservatives and reorder the electoral map for the next generation? Can Republicans find courage and leadership at this darkest moment of their political fortunes since the 1960s and turn back Obama? With our national deadlock now broken, anything is possible. Posted by: tipper 2008-10-16 |
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